Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Wildcats @ Bulldogs NU @ BUT

NORTHWESTERN

WILDCATSNU

7-4  |  Road

58
FINAL
Sat, Dec 20 • 4:00 PM ET
Gainbridge Fieldhouse
View Odds Details →

BUTLER

BULLDOGSBUT

8-3  |  Home

61
AI Model Win Probability
WILDCATS
100%
📊
BULLDOGS
0%
WILDCATS --
BULLDOGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
153.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-19.0
BUTLER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +19.0 points (Butler)
WildcatsNU (-3.5) 0 BulldogsBUT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wildcats Cover

2.9%

Bulldogs Cover

97.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BUT -19.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUT)

NU By 1-7 points

2.2%

NU By 8-14 points

0.4%

BUT By 1-7 points

9.3%

BUT By 8-14 points

20.1%

AI Model Projected Score
67
NORTHWESTERN
86
BUTLER
Simulated Score
68
NORTHWESTERN
72
BUTLER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulldogs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs (-3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -19.0
D
Sim Bulldogs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u155.5 Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Sim u155.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 20, 2025 NU @ BUT 58 - 61
Nov 28, 2024 NU @ BUT 69 - 71
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +37.5% more
Butler: 7.0 vs Northwestern: 5.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.3%
Butler: 31.2% vs Northwestern: 27.9%
Assists (L5) +17.4% more
Northwestern: 18.5 vs Butler: 15.3
Field Goal % (L5) +8.2%
Northwestern: 50.6% vs Butler: 42.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NU Score 67.0 58
BUT Score 86.0 61
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.2 / 27.9 23.0 / 17.0
Assists 15.3 / 18.5 12.0 / 18.0
Blocks 4.0 / 4.0 4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 42.4 / 50.6 38.0 / 36.0
Free Throw % 71.1 / 75.9 71.0 / 89.0
Rebounding 37.3 / 35.6 41.0 / 35.0
Steals 7.0 / 5.1 7.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 9.5 / 9.7 14.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
18%TICKETS82%
27%MONEY73%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
38%MONEY62%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
70%MONEY30%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NU
15-19-0 (44.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-: +0.6
BUT Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.8 ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NU
16-16-2 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-: +0.6
BUT
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.8 ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
NU
15-18-1
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: -1.0
BUT
17-14-1
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2% Total +/-: +2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUT
NU
BUT
NU
ML
62% 20-12
47% 16-18
65% 20-11
68% 23-11
ATS
56% 18-14
50% 17-17
65% 20-11
68% 23-11
TTL
50% 16-16
53% 18-16
100% 31-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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