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ARKANSAS STATE

RED WOLVESARST

8-4  |  Road

93
FINAL
Sat, Dec 20 • 4:30 PM ET
Reed Green Coliseum
View Odds Details →

SOUTHERN MISS

GOLDEN EAGLESUSM

7-5  |  Home

86
AI Model Win Probability
RED WOLVES
100%
📊
GOLDEN EAGLES
0%
RED WOLVES --
GOLDEN EAGLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
135.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
SOUTHERN MISS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Southern Miss)
Red WolvesARST (-3.5) 0 Golden EaglesUSM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Red Wolves Cover

46.0%

Golden Eagles Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around USM -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USM)

ARST By 1-7 points

24.3%

ARST By 8-14 points

13.7%

USM By 1-7 points

26.2%

USM By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
67
ARKANSAS STATE
68
SOUTHERN MISS
Simulated Score
70
ARKANSAS STATE
75
SOUTHERN MISS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Golden Eagles Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Golden Eagles Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Golden Eagles (+1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Golden Eagles (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u156.5 Loss
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Sim u156.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 24, 2026 USM @ ARST 84 - 89
Dec 20, 2025 ARST @ USM 93 - 86
Feb 12, 2025 USM @ ARST 67 - 101
Jan 29, 2025 ARST @ USM 81 - 68
Jan 31, 2024 USM @ ARST 71 - 78
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +39.1% more
Southern Miss: 4.1 vs Arkansas State: 2.9
Assists (L5) +39.2% more
Arkansas State: 16.3 vs Southern Miss: 9.9
Turnovers (L5) +15.6% more
Arkansas State: 14.9 vs Southern Miss: 12.6
Rebounding (L5) +10.5% more
Arkansas State: 40.9 vs Southern Miss: 36.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARST Score 67.0 93
USM Score 68.0 86
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 27.6 / 36.8 44.0 / 36.0
Assists 9.9 / 16.3 11.0 / 11.0
Blocks 4.1 / 2.9 2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 41.5 / 49.7 48.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 69.0 / 76.9 93.0 / 82.0
Rebounding 36.6 / 40.9 29.0 / 37.0
Steals 6.4 / 6.0 5.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 12.6 / 14.9 11.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
57%MONEY43%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
38%MONEY62%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
11%MONEY89%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARST Advantage
20-12-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 5.8 ATS +/-: -0.5
USM
19-16-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARST
15-15-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 5.8 ATS +/-: -0.5
USM
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
ARST
15-14-1
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3% Total +/-: +2.5
USM
20-13-0
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4% Total +/-: +3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USM
ARST
USM
ARST
ML
53% 18-16
48% 15-16
73% 24-9
53% 16-14
ATS
59% 20-14
58% 18-13
74% 25-9
53% 16-14
TTL
68% 23-11
61% 19-12
100% 34-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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