Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bears @ Cougars MER @ WSU

MERCER

BEARSMER

7-4  |  Road

78
FINAL
Sat, Dec 20 • 5:00 PM ET
Beasley Coliseum
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON STATE

COUGARSWSU

4-8  |  Home

84
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
0%
📊
COUGARS
100%
BEARS --
COUGARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
121.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-45.0
MERCER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +45.0 points (Mercer)
BearsMER (-3.5) 0 CougarsWSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bears Cover

100.0%

Cougars Cover

0.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MER -45.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MER)

MER By 1-7 points

0.0%

MER By 8-14 points

0.1%

WSU By 1-7 points

0.0%

WSU By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
83
MERCER
38
WASHINGTON STATE
Simulated Score
65
MERCER
78
WASHINGTON STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bears Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cougars Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bears (-6.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -45.0
D
Sim Cougars (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u151.5 Loss
Proj Total: 121.0
D
Sim u151.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 20, 2025 MER @ WSU 78 - 84
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +19.5% more
Mercer: 8.4 vs Washington State: 6.8
Blocks (L5) +11.7% more
Mercer: 3.3 vs Washington State: 2.9
Turnovers (L5) +21.4% more
Washington State: 14.7 vs Mercer: 12.1
Assists (L5) +14.5% more
Washington State: 13.9 vs Mercer: 12.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MER Score 83.0 78
WSU Score 38.0 84
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.1 / 30.3 48.0 / 26.0
Assists 13.9 / 12.2 12.0 / 13.0
Blocks 2.9 / 3.3 5.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 45.8 / 43.8 54.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 68.8 / 64.6 65.0 / 50.0
Rebounding 35.2 / 36.3 37.0 / 40.0
Steals 6.8 / 8.4 8.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 14.7 / 12.1 13.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
23%MONEY77%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
43%MONEY57%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
43%MONEY57%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MER Advantage
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: +1.1
WSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -1.4 ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MER Advantage
19-10-0 (65.5%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: +1.1
WSU
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: -1.4 ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
MER
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: +3.3
WSU
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSU
MER
WSU
MER
ML
78% 25-7
55% 17-14
69% 20-9
71% 22-9
ATS
78% 25-7
58% 18-13
69% 20-9
71% 22-9
TTL
62% 20-12
61% 19-12
100% 29-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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