MARYLAND
TERRAPINSMD
6-5 | Road
72
VIRGINIA
CAVALIERSUVA
9-1 | Home
80
AI Model Win Probability
TERRAPINS
100%
CAVALIERS
0%
TERRAPINS
--
CAVALIERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
135.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
VIRGINIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Virginia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UVA -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UVA)
MD By 1-7 points
24.3%
MD By 8-14 points
13.7%
UVA By 1-7 points
26.2%
UVA By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Maryland
67
MARYLAND
Virginia
68
VIRGINIA
Simulated Score
Maryland
57
MARYLAND
Virginia
61
VIRGINIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cavaliers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cavaliers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cavaliers (+15.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Cavaliers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u154.5
Win
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Sim
u154.5
Win
Proj Total: 118.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 20, 2025
MD @ UVA
72 - 80
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+141.7% more
Virginia: 6.1
vs
Maryland: 2.5
Assists (L5)
+78.0% more
Virginia: 17.3
vs
Maryland: 9.7
Steals (L5)
+48.4% more
Virginia: 7.7
vs
Maryland: 5.2
Field Goal % (L5)
+9.2%
Virginia: 51.3%
vs
Maryland: 42.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MD Score
67.0
72
UVA Score
68.0
80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
45.7 / 37.7
35.0 / 41.0
Assists
17.3 / 9.7
18.0 / 12.0
Blocks
6.1 / 2.5
5.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
51.3 / 42.1
45.0 / 41.0
Free Throw %
70.7 / 68.6
62.0 / 73.0
Rebounding
37.1 / 35.4
34.0 / 41.0
Steals
7.7 / 5.2
15.0 / 2.0
Turnovers
10.8 / 13.2
8.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MD
12-21-0
(36.4%)
Margin: -6.9
ATS +/-: -2.6
UVA
Advantage
30-6-0
(83.3%)
Margin: 11.6
ATS +/-: +1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MD
16-17-0
(48.5%)
Margin: -6.9
ATS +/-: -2.6
UVA
Advantage
17-17-2
(50.0%)
Margin: 11.6
ATS +/-: +1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
MD
18-15-0
O: 54.6% / U: 45.5%
Total +/-: -0.8
UVA
17-19-0
O: 47.2% / U: 52.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UVA
MD
UVA
MD
ML
67%
24-12
70%
23-10
72%
26-10
67%
22-11
ATS
75%
27-9
64%
21-12
72%
26-10
67%
22-11
TTL
53%
19-17
64%
21-12
100%
36-0
100%
33-0
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