Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bulldogs @ Rebels FRES @ UNLV

FRESNO STATE

BULLDOGSFRES

6-5  |  Road

72
FINAL
Sat, Dec 20 • 7:00 PM ET
Thomas & Mack Center
View Odds Details →

UNLV

REBELSUNLV

4-6  |  Home

84
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
100%
📊
REBELS
0%
BULLDOGS --
REBELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
135.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
UNLV
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (UNLV)
BulldogsFRES (-3.5) 0 RebelsUNLV (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulldogs Cover

46.0%

Rebels Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UNLV -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNLV)

FRES By 1-7 points

24.3%

FRES By 8-14 points

13.7%

UNLV By 1-7 points

26.2%

UNLV By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
67
FRESNO STATE
68
UNLV
Simulated Score
69
FRESNO STATE
74
UNLV
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rebels Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rebels Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rebels (+8.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Rebels (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u159.5 Win
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Sim u159.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 3, 2026 UNLV @ FRES 96 - 98
Dec 20, 2025 FRES @ UNLV 72 - 84
Feb 15, 2025 UNLV @ FRES 52 - 51
Dec 28, 2024 FRES @ UNLV 77 - 87
Feb 14, 2024 UNLV @ FRES 67 - 65
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +147.6% more
UNLV: 3.6 vs Fresno State: 1.5
Steals (L5) +38.4% more
UNLV: 9.6 vs Fresno State: 6.9
Assists (L5) +25.4% more
Fresno State: 14.4 vs UNLV: 10.7
Free Throw % (L5) +16.1%
Fresno State: 77.0% vs UNLV: 60.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FRES Score 67.0 72
UNLV Score 68.0 84
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 25.5 / 32.1 39.0 / 36.0
Assists 10.7 / 14.4 20.0 / 17.0
Blocks 3.6 / 1.5 6.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 41.7 / 44.6 57.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 60.9 / 77.0 86.0 / 77.0
Rebounding 35.2 / 34.4 30.0 / 31.0
Steals 9.6 / 6.9 10.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 13.8 / 13.4 13.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
43%MONEY57%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
45%MONEY55%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
58%MONEY42%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FRES
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: +2.5
UNLV Advantage
18-17-0 (51.4%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FRES Advantage
21-10-0 (67.7%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: +2.5
UNLV
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
FRES
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1% Total +/-: -4.3
UNLV
20-14-0
O: 58.8% / U: 41.2% Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNLV
FRES
UNLV
FRES
ML
50% 17-17
59% 19-13
59% 20-14
74% 23-8
ATS
65% 22-12
75% 24-8
59% 20-14
74% 23-8
TTL
62% 21-13
56% 18-14
100% 34-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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