SACRAMENTO STATE
HORNETSSAC
4-6 | Road
67
CALIFORNIA BAPTIST
LANCERSCBU
9-3 | Home
74
AI Model Win Probability
HORNETS
0%
LANCERS
100%
HORNETS
--
LANCERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
147.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-41.0
SACRAMENTO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +41.0 points (Sacramento State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SAC -41.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SAC)
SAC By 1-7 points
0.0%
SAC By 8-14 points
0.4%
CBU By 1-7 points
0.0%
CBU By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Sacramento State
94
SACRAMENTO STATE
California Baptist
53
CALIFORNIA BAPTIST
Simulated Score
Sacramento State
69
SACRAMENTO STATE
California Baptist
74
CALIFORNIA BAPTIST
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Hornets
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Lancers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Hornets (-14.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -41.0
D
Sim
Lancers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u159.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Sim
u159.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 20, 2025
SAC @ CBU
67 - 74
Feb 14, 2021
SAC @ CBU
70 - 69
Feb 13, 2021
SAC @ CBU
71 - 83
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+38.9% more
Sacramento State: 8.4
vs
California Baptist: 5.1
Blocks (L5)
+19.8% more
Sacramento State: 3.1
vs
California Baptist: 2.5
Free Throw % (L5)
+4.4%
Sacramento State: 80.5%
vs
California Baptist: 76.1%
Field Goal % (L5)
+6.1%
California Baptist: 43.1%
vs
Sacramento State: 37.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SAC Score
94.0
67
CBU Score
53.0
74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.5 / 28.6
39.0 / 31.0
Assists
12.2 / 12.8
12.0 / 8.0
Blocks
2.5 / 3.1
5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
43.1 / 37.0
40.0 / 37.0
Free Throw %
76.1 / 80.5
70.0 / 83.0
Rebounding
39.2 / 36.7
45.0 / 40.0
Steals
5.1 / 8.4
5.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
12.5 / 12.0
13.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SAC
10-21-0
(32.3%)
Margin: -4.3
ATS +/-: 0.0
CBU
Advantage
25-9-0
(73.5%)
Margin: 5.1
ATS +/-: +1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SAC
13-15-0
(46.4%)
Margin: -4.3
ATS +/-: 0.0
CBU
Advantage
20-14-0
(58.8%)
Margin: 5.1
ATS +/-: +1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
SAC
15-13-0
O: 53.6% / U: 46.4%
Total +/-: +1.6
CBU
12-22-0
O: 35.3% / U: 64.7%
Total +/-: -4.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CBU
SAC
CBU
SAC
ML
50%
17-17
57%
17-13
76%
25-8
87%
26-4
ATS
53%
18-16
73%
22-8
76%
25-8
87%
27-4
TTL
47%
16-18
60%
18-12
100%
33-0
100%
31-0
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