Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Musketeers @ Hoyas XAV @ GTWN

XAVIER

MUSKETEERSXAV

8-4  |  Road

80
FINAL
Sat, Dec 20 • 8:30 PM ET
Capital One Arena
View Odds Details →

GEORGETOWN

HOYASGTWN

8-3  |  Home

77
AI Model Win Probability
MUSKETEERS
0%
📊
HOYAS
100%
MUSKETEERS --
HOYAS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
160.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-30.0
XAVIER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +30.0 points (Xavier)
MusketeersXAV (-3.5) 0 HoyasGTWN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Musketeers Cover

99.9%

Hoyas Cover

0.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around XAV -30.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (XAV)

XAV By 1-7 points

1.1%

XAV By 8-14 points

4.8%

GTWN By 1-7 points

0.1%

GTWN By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
95
XAVIER
65
GEORGETOWN
Simulated Score
68
XAVIER
72
GEORGETOWN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Musketeers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Hoyas Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Musketeers (-4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -30.0
D
Sim Hoyas (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o149.5 Win
Proj Total: 160.0
D
Sim u149.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 28, 2026 GTWN @ XAV 84 - 91
Dec 20, 2025 XAV @ GTWN 80 - 77
Feb 4, 2025 GTWN @ XAV 69 - 74
Jan 3, 2025 XAV @ GTWN 63 - 69
Mar 2, 2024 XAV @ GTWN 98 - 93
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +25.4% more
Xavier: 4.5 vs Georgetown: 3.4
Assists (L5) +14.0% more
Xavier: 19.5 vs Georgetown: 16.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.8%
Xavier: 32.2% vs Georgetown: 27.4%
Free Throw % (L5) +17.6%
Georgetown: 76.3% vs Xavier: 58.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
XAV Score 95.0 80
GTWN Score 65.0 77
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 27.4 / 32.2 35.0 / 32.0
Assists 16.8 / 19.5 14.0 / 18.0
Blocks 3.4 / 4.5 5.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 45.0 / 42.0 40.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 76.3 / 58.7 58.0 / 79.0
Rebounding 38.5 / 34.7 36.0 / 45.0
Steals 5.9 / 6.2 6.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 9.5 / 9.0 10.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
13%TICKETS87%
26%MONEY74%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
21%MONEY79%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
76%MONEY24%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
XAV
15-18-0 (45.5%)
Margin: -2.3 ATS +/-: -1.2
GTWN Advantage
16-18-0 (47.1%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
XAV Advantage
16-17-0 (48.5%)
Margin: -2.3 ATS +/-: -1.2
GTWN
13-20-0 (39.4%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
XAV
25-8-0
O: 75.8% / U: 24.2% Total +/-: +6.0
GTWN
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5% Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GTWN
XAV
GTWN
XAV
ML
67% 22-11
58% 19-14
73% 22-8
72% 23-9
ATS
58% 19-14
73% 24-9
73% 22-8
72% 23-9
TTL
58% 19-14
39% 13-20
100% 30-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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