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BOISE STATE

BRONCOSBOIS

8-3  |  Road

66
FINAL
Sat, Dec 20 • 10:00 PM ET
Lawlor Events Center
View Odds Details →

NEVADA

WOLF PACKNEV

8-3  |  Home

81
AI Model Win Probability
BRONCOS
0%
📊
WOLF PACK
100%
BRONCOS --
WOLF PACK --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
145.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-27.0
BOISE STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +27.0 points (Boise State)
BroncosBOIS (-3.5) 0 Wolf PackNEV (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Broncos Cover

99.7%

Wolf Pack Cover

0.3%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around BOIS -27.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOIS)

BOIS By 1-7 points

2.2%

BOIS By 8-14 points

8.0%

NEV By 1-7 points

0.3%

NEV By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
86
BOISE STATE
59
NEVADA
Simulated Score
70
BOISE STATE
75
NEVADA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Broncos Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wolf Pack Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Broncos (+3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -27.0
D
Sim Wolf Pack (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o141.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Sim u141.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 3, 2026 NEV @ BOIS 87 - 91
Dec 20, 2025 BOIS @ NEV 66 - 81
Feb 22, 2025 BOIS @ NEV 70 - 69
Jan 29, 2025 NEV @ BOIS 56 - 66
Mar 5, 2024 NEV @ BOIS 76 - 66
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +35.1% more
Boise State: 12.0 vs Nevada: 7.8
Free Throw % (L5) +6.9%
Boise State: 82.4% vs Nevada: 75.6%
Field Goal % (L5) +2.0%
Boise State: 46.2% vs Nevada: 44.2%
Blocks (L5) +154.5% more
Nevada: 4.2 vs Boise State: 1.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOIS Score 86.0 66
NEV Score 59.0 81
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 42.0 / 37.4 44.0 / 32.0
Assists 13.1 / 12.5 17.0 / 14.0
Blocks 4.2 / 1.7 2.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 44.2 / 46.2 56.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 75.6 / 82.4 79.0 / 61.0
Rebounding 35.7 / 37.6 23.0 / 30.0
Steals 6.9 / 5.0 9.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 7.8 / 12.0 7.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
72%MONEY28%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
59%MONEY41%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
45%MONEY55%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOIS
20-12-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.2
NEV Advantage
24-13-0 (64.9%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOIS
17-13-0 (56.7%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.2
NEV Advantage
22-15-0 (59.5%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
BOIS
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3% Total +/-: +3.8
NEV
21-16-0
O: 56.8% / U: 43.2% Total +/-: +2.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NEV
BOIS
NEV
BOIS
ML
62% 23-14
50% 16-16
73% 27-10
61% 19-12
ATS
73% 27-10
50% 16-16
73% 27-10
61% 19-12
TTL
49% 18-19
56% 18-14
100% 37-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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