Home / NBA Projections NBA / Pacers @ Pelicans IND @ NO

INDIANA

PACERSIND

6-21  |  Road

109
FINAL
Sat, Dec 20 • 7:00 PM ET
Smoothie King Center
View Odds Details →

NEW ORLEANS

PELICANSNO

6-22  |  Home

128
AI Model Win Probability
PACERS
100%
📊
PELICANS
0%
PACERS --
PELICANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
224.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
NEW ORLEANS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (New Orleans)
PacersIND (-3.5) 0 PelicansNO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pacers Cover

27.4%

Pelicans Cover

72.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NO -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NO)

IND By 1-7 points

16.9%

IND By 8-14 points

6.8%

NO By 1-7 points

26.8%

NO By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
109
INDIANA
115
NEW ORLEANS
Simulated Score
113
INDIANA
118
NEW ORLEANS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Pelicans Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pelicans Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Pelicans (-2) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Pelicans (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u235.5 Loss
Proj Total: 224.0
D
Sim u235.5 Win
Proj Total: 231.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 16, 2026 NO @ IND 119 - 127
Dec 20, 2025 IND @ NO 109 - 128
Dec 15, 2024 NO @ IND 104 - 119
Nov 25, 2024 NO @ IND 110 - 114
Nov 1, 2024 IND @ NO 118 - 125
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +47.7% more
New Orleans: 10.5 vs Indiana: 7.1
Assists (L5) +22.6% more
New Orleans: 27.8 vs Indiana: 22.7
Field Goal % (L5) +6.1%
New Orleans: 49.9% vs Indiana: 43.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
IND Score 109.0 109
NO Score 115.0 128
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.8 / 33.5 33.0 / 19.0
Assists 27.8 / 22.7 25.0 / 28.0
Blocks 5.7 / 6.2 2.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 49.9 / 43.8 53.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 84.6 / 84.2 85.0 / 70.0
Rebounding 45.2 / 44.9 49.0 / 42.0
Steals 10.5 / 7.1 6.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 12.5 / 11.6 18.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
21%MONEY79%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
9%MONEY91%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND
19-63-0 (23.2%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
NO Advantage
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND
40-42-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
NO Advantage
45-36-1 (55.6%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.8
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NO
IND
NO
IND
ML
62% 98-61
48% 47-50
58% 48-35
54% 45-38
ATS
68% 107-51-1
59% 57-40
58% 48-35
54% 45-38
TTL
75% 119-40
54% 52-45
100% 83-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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