PORTLAND
TRAIL BLAZERSPOR
11-16 | Road
98
SACRAMENTO
KINGSSAC
6-21 | Home
93
AI Model Win Probability
TRAIL BLAZERS
0%
KINGS
100%
TRAIL BLAZERS
--
KINGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
235.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-25.0
PORTLAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +25.0 points (Portland)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around POR -25.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (POR)
POR By 1-7 points
3.3%
POR By 8-14 points
10.7%
SAC By 1-7 points
0.5%
SAC By 8-14 points
0.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Portland
130
PORTLAND
Sacramento
105
SACRAMENTO
Simulated Score
Portland
109
PORTLAND
Sacramento
118
SACRAMENTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Trail Blazers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Kings
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Trail Blazers (+4)
Win
Proj Spread: -25.0
D
Sim
Kings (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u236.0
Win
Proj Total: 235.0
D
Sim
u236.0
Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 12, 2026
SAC @ POR
110 - 122
Jan 18, 2026
POR @ SAC
117 - 110
Dec 20, 2025
POR @ SAC
98 - 93
Dec 18, 2025
SAC @ POR
133 - 134
Oct 10, 2025
SAC @ POR
123 - 124
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+16.8% more
Portland: 19.1
vs
Sacramento: 15.9
Assists (L5)
+8.9% more
Portland: 27.4
vs
Sacramento: 24.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.4%
Portland: 37.0%
vs
Sacramento: 34.5%
Steals (L5)
+32.3% more
Sacramento: 9.5
vs
Portland: 7.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
POR Score
130.0
98
SAC Score
105.0
93
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.5 / 37.0
19.0 / 34.0
Assists
24.9 / 27.4
18.0 / 18.0
Blocks
6.4 / 5.7
6.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
47.9 / 46.4
38.0 / 43.0
Free Throw %
77.7 / 76.4
68.0 / 68.0
Rebounding
40.5 / 43.8
50.0 / 46.0
Steals
9.5 / 7.2
14.0 / 12.0
Turnovers
15.9 / 19.1
18.0 / 20.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
POR
Advantage
44-44-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
SAC
22-60-0
(26.8%)
Margin: -10.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
POR
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
SAC
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -10.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -1.0
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SAC
POR
SAC
POR
ML
55%
55-45
53%
56-49
61%
50-32
55%
49-40
ATS
54%
52-45-3
62%
65-39-1
61%
50-32
55%
49-40
TTL
58%
57-42-1
56%
58-46-1
100%
82-0
100%
89-0
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