Home / NHL Projections NHL / Red Wings @ Capitals DET @ WSH

DETROIT

RED WINGSDET

19-13-3  |  Road

5
FINAL
Sat, Dec 20 • 12:30 PM ET
Capital One Arena
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

CAPITALSWSH

19-11-4  |  Home

2
Goaltending
John Gibson
GOALTENDER

John Gibson

#36 | Goaltender
@
Logan Thompson
GOALTENDER

Logan Thompson

#48 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
John Gibson None-None 2.00 0.923 --
Logan Thompson None-None 4.08 0.900 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
2.00 Ldr GAA 4.08
0.923 Ldr Save % 0.900
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
RED WINGS
100%
📊
CAPITALS
0%
RED WINGS --
CAPITALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Washington)
Red WingsDET (-3.5) 0 CapitalsWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Red Wings Cover

30.9%

Capitals Cover

69.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around WSH -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)

DET By 1 goal

12.1%

DET By 2-3 goals

9.3%

WSH By 1 goal

19.7%

WSH By 2-3 goals

29.6%

AI Model Projected Score
2
DETROIT
3
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
2
DETROIT
3
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Capitals Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Capitals Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Capitals (+1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Capitals (+0) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u5.5 Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim u5.5 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 29, 2026 WSH @ DET 4 - 3
Dec 21, 2025 WSH @ DET 2 - 3
Dec 20, 2025 DET @ WSH 5 - 2
Mar 18, 2025 DET @ WSH 1 - 4
Mar 7, 2025 DET @ WSH 2 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +24.4% more
Washington: 16.8 vs Detroit: 13.5
Power Play % (L5) +29.2%
Detroit: 35.4% vs Washington: 6.3%
Blocked Shots (L5) +25.7% more
Detroit: 17.9 vs Washington: 13.3
Takeaways (L5) +15.1% more
Detroit: 4.5 vs Washington: 3.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DET Score 2.0 5
WSH Score 3.0 2
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
13%MONEY87%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
31%MONEY69%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
79%MONEY21%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
DET
WSH
DET
ML
100% 3-0
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
ATS
100% 3-0
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
TTL
33% 1-2
0% 0-3
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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