Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Golden Grizzlies @ Spartans OAK @ MSU

OAKLAND

GOLDEN GRIZZLIESOAK

6-6  |  Road

70
FINAL
Sat, Dec 20 • 12:00 PM ET
Little Caesars Arena
View Odds Details →

MICHIGAN STATE

SPARTANSMSU

10-1  |  Home

79
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN GRIZZLIES
100%
📊
SPARTANS
0%
GOLDEN GRIZZLIES --
SPARTANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
144.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
MICHIGAN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Michigan State)
Golden GrizzliesOAK (-3.5) 0 SpartansMSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Golden Grizzlies Cover

27.4%

Spartans Cover

72.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MSU -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MSU)

OAK By 1-7 points

16.9%

OAK By 8-14 points

6.8%

MSU By 1-7 points

26.8%

MSU By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
69
OAKLAND
75
MICHIGAN STATE
Simulated Score
63
OAKLAND
77
MICHIGAN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Spartans Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Spartans Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Spartans (+19.5) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Spartans (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u153.5 Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Sim u153.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 20, 2025 OAK @ MSU 70 - 79
Dec 17, 2024 MSU @ OAK 77 - 58
Dec 18, 2023 OAK @ MSU 62 - 79
Dec 21, 2022 OAK @ MSU 54 - 67
Dec 21, 2021 MSU @ OAK 90 - 78
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +80.1% more
Michigan State: 5.1 vs Oakland: 2.8
Rebounding (L5) +21.7% more
Michigan State: 44.8 vs Oakland: 36.8
Turnovers (L5) +19.2% more
Michigan State: 13.1 vs Oakland: 11.0
Assists (L5) +9.8% more
Michigan State: 19.5 vs Oakland: 17.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OAK Score 69.0 70
MSU Score 75.0 79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 42.7 / 32.9 27.0 / 45.0
Assists 19.5 / 17.7 19.0 / 15.0
Blocks 5.1 / 2.8 11.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 46.6 / 47.5 46.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 77.6 / 69.3 74.0 / 92.0
Rebounding 44.8 / 36.8 42.0 / 26.0
Steals 4.8 / 7.3 4.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 13.1 / 11.0 11.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
1%MONEY99%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
16%TICKETS84%
14%MONEY86%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
47%MONEY53%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OAK
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-: -0.1
MSU Advantage
27-8-0 (77.1%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OAK Advantage
17-14-0 (54.8%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-: -0.1
MSU
17-16-2 (51.5%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
OAK
19-12-0
O: 61.3% / U: 38.7% Total +/-: +4.0
MSU
16-19-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3% Total +/-: +1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MSU
OAK
MSU
OAK
ML
71% 25-10
62% 20-12
61% 20-13
59% 19-13
ATS
71% 25-10
50% 16-16
61% 20-13
59% 19-13
TTL
49% 17-18
62% 20-12
100% 33-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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