Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Grizzlies @ Cardinals MONT @ LOU

MONTANA

GRIZZLIESMONT

6-6  |  Road

54
FINAL
Sat, Dec 20 • 12:00 PM ET
KFC Yum! Center
View Odds Details →

LOUISVILLE

CARDINALSLOU

9-2  |  Home

94
AI Model Win Probability
GRIZZLIES
100%
📊
CARDINALS
0%
GRIZZLIES --
CARDINALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
139.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
LOUISVILLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (Louisville)
GrizzliesMONT (-3.5) 0 CardinalsLOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Grizzlies Cover

1.8%

Cardinals Cover

98.2%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around LOU -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LOU)

MONT By 1-7 points

1.4%

MONT By 8-14 points

0.2%

LOU By 1-7 points

6.8%

LOU By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
59
MONTANA
80
LOUISVILLE
Simulated Score
70
MONTANA
75
LOUISVILLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cardinals Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cardinals Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cardinals (+30.5) Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
D
Sim Cardinals (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u167.5 Win
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Sim u167.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 20, 2025 MONT @ LOU 54 - 94
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +13.3%
Louisville: 74.9% vs Montana: 61.6%
Assists (L5) +25.2% more
Montana: 20.6 vs Louisville: 15.4
Blocks (L5) +23.5% more
Montana: 3.8 vs Louisville: 2.9
Steals (L5) +12.2% more
Montana: 6.4 vs Louisville: 5.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MONT Score 59.0 54
LOU Score 80.0 94
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.3 / 41.7 35.0 / 29.0
Assists 15.4 / 20.6 24.0 / 7.0
Blocks 2.9 / 3.8 2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 45.3 / 56.1 52.0 / 32.0
Free Throw % 74.9 / 61.6 74.0 / 87.0
Rebounding 35.6 / 38.4 48.0 / 25.0
Steals 5.6 / 6.4 13.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 13.0 / 14.2 14.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
5%MONEY95%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
29%MONEY71%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
45%MONEY55%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MONT
18-16-0 (52.9%)
Margin: 2.7 ATS +/-: -0.4
LOU Advantage
24-11-0 (68.6%)
Margin: 11.7 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MONT Advantage
15-15-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 2.7 ATS +/-: -0.4
LOU
17-18-0 (48.6%)
Margin: 11.7 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MONT
14-15-1
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: -0.4
LOU
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -3.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LOU
MONT
LOU
MONT
ML
63% 22-13
39% 13-20
71% 24-10
73% 24-9
ATS
71% 25-10
55% 18-15
71% 24-10
73% 24-9
TTL
63% 22-13
59% 19-13-1
100% 34-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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