Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Red Storm @ Wildcats SJU @ UK

ST. JOHN'S

RED STORMSJU

7-3  |  Road

66
FINAL
Sat, Dec 20 • 12:30 PM ET
State Farm Arena
View Odds Details →

KENTUCKY

WILDCATSUK

7-4  |  Home

78
AI Model Win Probability
RED STORM
0%
📊
WILDCATS
100%
RED STORM --
WILDCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
139.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
ST. JOHN'S
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (St. John's)
Red StormSJU (-3.5) 0 WildcatsUK (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Red Storm Cover

98.2%

Wildcats Cover

1.8%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SJU -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SJU)

SJU By 1-7 points

6.8%

SJU By 8-14 points

16.9%

UK By 1-7 points

1.4%

UK By 8-14 points

0.2%

AI Model Projected Score
80
ST. JOHN'S
59
KENTUCKY
Simulated Score
71
ST. JOHN'S
82
KENTUCKY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Red Storm Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wildcats Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Red Storm (+1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -21.0
D
Sim Wildcats (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u155.5 Win
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Sim u155.5 Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 20, 2025 SJU @ UK 66 - 78
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +42.2% more
St. John's: 13.6 vs Kentucky: 7.9
Blocks (L5) +40.6% more
St. John's: 6.9 vs Kentucky: 4.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +9.2%
St. John's: 36.5% vs Kentucky: 27.4%
Free Throw % (L5) +1.7%
St. John's: 77.7% vs Kentucky: 76.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SJU Score 80.0 66
UK Score 59.0 78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 27.4 / 36.5 25.0 / 26.0
Assists 16.1 / 13.4 13.0 / 14.0
Blocks 4.1 / 6.9 7.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 44.6 / 45.2 46.0 / 33.0
Free Throw % 76.0 / 77.7 82.0 / 84.0
Rebounding 35.9 / 38.9 39.0 / 28.0
Steals 9.7 / 8.3 6.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 7.9 / 13.6 16.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
51%MONEY49%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
67%MONEY33%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
44%MONEY56%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SJU Advantage
30-7-0 (81.1%)
Margin: 11.3 ATS +/-: +1.8
UK
22-14-0 (61.1%)
Margin: 6.2 ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SJU Advantage
22-13-1 (62.9%)
Margin: 11.3 ATS +/-: +1.8
UK
18-18-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 6.2 ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
SJU
13-23-0
O: 36.1% / U: 63.9% Total +/-: -3.6
UK
18-18-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UK
SJU
UK
SJU
ML
71% 25-10
62% 18-11
72% 23-9
62% 18-11
ATS
83% 29-6
66% 19-10
72% 23-9
62% 18-11
TTL
63% 22-13
59% 17-12
100% 32-0
100% 29-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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