Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Lancers @ Eagles LONG @ NCCU

LONGWOOD

LANCERSLONG

6-7  |  Road

74
FINAL
Sat, Dec 20 • 2:00 PM ET
McDougald-McLendon Arena
View Odds Details →

NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL

EAGLESNCCU

4-9  |  Home

72
AI Model Win Probability
LANCERS
100%
📊
EAGLES
0%
LANCERS --
EAGLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
165.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (North Carolina Central)
LancersLONG (-3.5) 0 EaglesNCCU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lancers Cover

24.2%

Eagles Cover

75.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NCCU -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NCCU)

LONG By 1-7 points

15.3%

LONG By 8-14 points

5.8%

NCCU By 1-7 points

26.2%

NCCU By 8-14 points

25.3%

AI Model Projected Score
79
LONGWOOD
86
NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL
Simulated Score
69
LONGWOOD
73
NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Eagles Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Eagles Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Eagles (+4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Eagles (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o147.5 Loss
Proj Total: 165.0
D
Sim u147.5 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 20, 2025 LONG @ NCCU 74 - 72
Dec 20, 2024 LONG @ NCCU 82 - 67
Dec 14, 2024 NCCU @ LONG 77 - 70
Dec 20, 2023 LONG @ NCCU 70 - 79
Nov 18, 2023 NCCU @ LONG 66 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +77.0% more
North Carolina Central: 11.5 vs Longwood: 6.5
Blocks (L5) +27.7% more
North Carolina Central: 3.2 vs Longwood: 2.5
Free Throw % (L5) +9.1%
Longwood: 78.2% vs North Carolina Central: 69.1%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.4%
Longwood: 29.9% vs North Carolina Central: 24.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LONG Score 79.0 74
NCCU Score 86.0 72
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 24.5 / 29.9 12.0 / 21.0
Assists 15.2 / 14.5 13.0 / 14.0
Blocks 3.2 / 2.5 3.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 44.6 / 44.7 45.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 69.1 / 78.2 80.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 36.2 / 37.3 27.0 / 40.0
Steals 11.5 / 6.5 11.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 13.2 / 14.3 12.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
83%TICKETS17%
72%MONEY28%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
14%MONEY86%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
50%MONEY50%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LONG Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.6 ATS +/-: +0.1
NCCU
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: -3.6 ATS +/-: -1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LONG
13-16-0 (44.8%)
Margin: 3.6 ATS +/-: +0.1
NCCU Advantage
15-13-0 (53.6%)
Margin: -3.6 ATS +/-: -1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
LONG
17-12-0
O: 58.6% / U: 41.4% Total +/-: +2.7
NCCU
13-15-0
O: 46.4% / U: 53.6% Total +/-: +2.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NCCU
LONG
NCCU
LONG
ML
65% 20-11
65% 20-11
81% 22-5
68% 21-10
ATS
71% 22-9
68% 21-10
81% 22-5
68% 21-10
TTL
55% 17-14
65% 20-11
100% 27-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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