Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Aztecs @ Wildcats SDSU @ ARIZ

SAN DIEGO STATE

AZTECSSDSU

6-3  |  Road

45
FINAL
Sat, Dec 20 • 10:30 PM ET
Mortgage Matchup Center
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ARIZONA

WILDCATSARIZ

10-0  |  Home

68
AI Model Win Probability
AZTECS
100%
📊
WILDCATS
0%
AZTECS --
WILDCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
135.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Arizona)
AztecsSDSU (-3.5) 0 WildcatsARIZ (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Aztecs Cover

46.0%

Wildcats Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ARIZ -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARIZ)

SDSU By 1-7 points

24.3%

SDSU By 8-14 points

13.7%

ARIZ By 1-7 points

26.2%

ARIZ By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
67
SAN DIEGO STATE
68
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
72
SAN DIEGO STATE
78
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Wildcats Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wildcats Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Wildcats (+13.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Wildcats (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u154.5 Win
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Sim u154.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 20, 2025 SDSU @ ARIZ 45 - 68
Nov 22, 2022 SDSU @ ARIZ 70 - 87
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +28.3% more
Arizona: 10.0 vs San Diego State: 7.8
Rebounding (L5) +21.5% more
Arizona: 43.1 vs San Diego State: 35.5
Field Goal % (L5) +7.8%
Arizona: 56.6% vs San Diego State: 48.8%
Blocks (L5) +19.8% more
San Diego State: 4.9 vs Arizona: 3.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SDSU Score 67.0 45
ARIZ Score 68.0 68
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.7 / 41.6 24.0 / 7.0
Assists 18.7 / 19.0 13.0 / 7.0
Blocks 3.9 / 4.9 3.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 56.6 / 48.8 38.0 / 26.0
Free Throw % 72.8 / 74.8 67.0 / 74.0
Rebounding 43.1 / 35.5 52.0 / 28.0
Steals 10.0 / 7.8 5.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 12.7 / 12.5 11.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
12%MONEY88%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
8%TICKETS92%
12%MONEY88%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
72%MONEY28%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SDSU
22-11-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -0.7
ARIZ Advantage
36-3-0 (92.3%)
Margin: 16.8 ATS +/-: +3.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SDSU
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -0.7
ARIZ Advantage
23-15-1 (60.5%)
Margin: 16.8 ATS +/-: +3.2
⚖️ Over/Under
SDSU
15-16-0
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: +5.5
ARIZ
20-19-0
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: -1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARIZ
SDSU
ARIZ
SDSU
ML
67% 26-13
62% 20-12
68% 23-11
72% 23-9
ATS
74% 29-10
69% 22-10
68% 23-11
72% 23-9
TTL
56% 22-17
75% 24-8
100% 34-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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