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FLORIDA A&M

RATTLERSFAMU

3-5  |  Road

54
FINAL
Fri, Dec 19 • 8:00 PM ET
Wisdom Gym
View Odds Details →

TARLETON STATE

TEXANSTAR

8-4  |  Home

78
AI Model Win Probability
RATTLERS
100%
📊
TEXANS
0%
RATTLERS --
TEXANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
89.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
TARLETON STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Tarleton State)
RattlersFAMU (-3.5) 0 TexansTAR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rattlers Cover

18.4%

Texans Cover

81.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TAR -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TAR)

FAMU By 1-7 points

12.2%

FAMU By 8-14 points

4.0%

TAR By 1-7 points

24.3%

TAR By 8-14 points

26.8%

AI Model Projected Score
40
FLORIDA A&M
49
TARLETON STATE
Simulated Score
71
FLORIDA A&M
75
TARLETON STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Texans Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Texans Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Texans (+14.5) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim Texans (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u147.5 Win
Proj Total: 89.0
D
Sim u147.5 Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 19, 2025 FAMU @ TAR 54 - 78
Dec 29, 2024 FAMU @ TAR 60 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +123.6% more
Tarleton State: 15.6 vs Florida A&M: 7.0
Assists (L5) +49.7% more
Tarleton State: 16.2 vs Florida A&M: 10.8
Free Throw % (L5) +16.0%
Tarleton State: 74.0% vs Florida A&M: 58.0%
Rebounding (L5) +9.4% more
Tarleton State: 36.5 vs Florida A&M: 33.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FAMU Score 40.0 54
TAR Score 49.0 78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.1 / 31.1 50.0 / 23.0
Assists 16.2 / 10.8 13.0 / 7.0
Blocks 2.8 / 3.1 1.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 50.8 / 45.7 47.0 / 33.0
Free Throw % 74.0 / 58.0 74.0 / 63.0
Rebounding 36.5 / 33.3 43.0 / 32.0
Steals 15.6 / 7.0 13.0 / 13.0
Turnovers 15.3 / 14.2 20.0 / 23.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FAMU Advantage
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: +1.0
TAR
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: 0.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FAMU Advantage
16-13-0 (55.2%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: +1.0
TAR
14-14-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: 0.0
⚖️ Over/Under
FAMU
11-18-0
O: 37.9% / U: 62.1% Total +/-: -1.7
TAR
15-13-0
O: 53.6% / U: 46.4% Total +/-: +4.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TAR
FAMU
TAR
FAMU
ML
59% 19-13
55% 16-13
66% 21-11
71% 17-7
ATS
69% 22-10
48% 14-15
66% 21-11
71% 17-7
TTL
50% 16-16
76% 22-7
100% 32-0
100% 24-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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