SAN ANTONIO
SPURSSA
19-7 | Road
126
ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
15-13 | Home
98
AI Model Win Probability
SPURS
100%
HAWKS
0%
SPURS
--
HAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
215.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ATL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
SA By 1-7 points
24.3%
SA By 8-14 points
13.7%
ATL By 1-7 points
26.2%
ATL By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
San Antonio
107
SAN ANTONIO
Atlanta
108
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
San Antonio
111
SAN ANTONIO
Atlanta
115
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Hawks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hawks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Hawks (+3.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Hawks (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u239.0
Win
Proj Total: 215.0
D
Sim
u239.0
Win
Proj Total: 226.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 19, 2025
SA @ ATL
126 - 98
Nov 20, 2025
ATL @ SA
126 - 135
Feb 5, 2025
SA @ ATL
126 - 125
Dec 19, 2024
ATL @ SA
126 - 133
Jan 15, 2024
SA @ ATL
99 - 109
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+27.3% more
Atlanta: 8.3
vs
San Antonio: 6.5
Turnovers (L5)
+23.7% more
Atlanta: 16.3
vs
San Antonio: 13.2
Assists (L5)
+16.8% more
Atlanta: 31.3
vs
San Antonio: 26.8
Free Throw % (L5)
+7.0%
Atlanta: 85.1%
vs
San Antonio: 78.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SA Score
107.0
126
ATL Score
108.0
98
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.8 / 36.8
25.0 / 36.0
Assists
31.3 / 26.8
26.0 / 31.0
Blocks
4.2 / 5.9
1.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
48.2 / 45.9
40.0 / 54.0
Free Throw %
85.1 / 78.1
75.0 / 69.0
Rebounding
42.6 / 48.0
43.0 / 56.0
Steals
8.3 / 6.5
7.0 / 11.0
Turnovers
16.3 / 13.2
17.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SA
Advantage
75-31-0
(70.8%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
ATL
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SA
Advantage
60-44-2
(57.7%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
ATL
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: -1.1
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
SA
ATL
SA
ML
50%
52-52
60%
111-73
55%
48-40
58%
61-44
ATS
53%
55-48-1
58%
107-76-1
55%
48-40
58%
61-44
TTL
53%
55-48-1
74%
134-47-3
100%
88-0
100%
105-0
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