Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / New Mexico @ Minnesota UNM @ MINN

NEW MEXICO

NEW MEXICOUNM

9-3  |  Road

17
FINAL
Fri, Dec 26 • 4:30 PM ET
Chase Field
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

MINNESOTAMINN

7-5  |  Home

20
Key Game
Drew Speech
KEY GAME

Drew Speech

#12 | Safety
@
Matt Kingsbury
KEY GAME

Matt Kingsbury

#49 | Linebacker
Player
Drew Speech None-None
Matt Kingsbury None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NEW MEXICO
0%
📊
MINNESOTA
100%
NEW MEXICO --
MINNESOTA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
45.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-31.0
NEW MEXICO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +31.0 points (New Mexico)
New MexicoUNM (-3.5) 0 MinnesotaMINN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

New Mexico Cover

98.7%

Minnesota Cover

1.3%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around UNM -31.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNM)

UNM By 1-6 points

2.5%

UNM By 7-13 points

6.6%

MINN By 1-6 points

0.9%

MINN By 7-13 points

0.3%

AI Model Projected Score
38
NEW MEXICO
7
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
13
NEW MEXICO
31
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI New Mexico Loss
0% Win Prob
B
Sim Minnesota Win
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI New Mexico (-1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -31.0
B
Sim Minnesota (+1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -18.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o44.5 Loss
Proj Total: 45.0
B
Sim u44.5 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 26, 2025 UNM @ MINN 17 - 20
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +80.5% more
New Mexico: 1.3 vs Minnesota: 0.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +44.1% more
New Mexico: 164.6 vs Minnesota: 91.9
Total Yards (L5) +26.1% more
New Mexico: 342.5 vs Minnesota: 253.1
First Downs (L5) +16.8% more
New Mexico: 17.3 vs Minnesota: 14.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNM Score 38.0 17
MINN Score 7.0 20
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 14.4 / 17.3 16.0 / 17.0
Rushing Yards 91.9 / 164.6 105.0 / 116.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.47 / 0.44
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.49 / 0.51
Total Yards 253.1 / 342.5 252.0 / 204.0
Turnovers 0.3 / 1.3 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
51%MONEY49%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
48%MONEY52%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
64%MONEY36%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNM
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 32.8 ATS +/-: +19.3
MINN
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 14.0 ATS +/-: +5.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNM Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 32.8 ATS +/-: +19.3
MINN
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 14.0 ATS +/-: +5.0
⚖️ Over/Under
UNM
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +5.5
MINN
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MINN
UNM
MINN
UNM
ML
40% 2-3
100% 4-0
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
60% 3-2
25% 1-3
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
TTL
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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