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WISCONSIN

BADGERSWIS

7-3  |  Road

66
FINAL
Fri, Dec 19 • 8:00 PM ET
Fiserv Forum
View Odds Details →

VILLANOVA

WILDCATSVILL

8-2  |  Home

76
AI Model Win Probability
BADGERS
100%
📊
WILDCATS
0%
BADGERS --
WILDCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
77.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
VILLANOVA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Villanova)
BadgersWIS (-3.5) 0 WildcatsVILL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Badgers Cover

46.0%

Wildcats Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around VILL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VILL)

WIS By 1-7 points

24.3%

WIS By 8-14 points

13.7%

VILL By 1-7 points

26.2%

VILL By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
38
WISCONSIN
39
VILLANOVA
Simulated Score
68
WISCONSIN
72
VILLANOVA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Wildcats Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wildcats Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Wildcats (+4) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Wildcats (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u152.0 Win
Proj Total: 77.0
D
Sim u152.0 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 19, 2025 WIS @ VILL 66 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +10.6% more
Villanova: 7.0 vs Wisconsin: 6.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.5%
Villanova: 37.3% vs Wisconsin: 30.8%
Field Goal % (L5) +6.5%
Villanova: 47.3% vs Wisconsin: 40.8%
Turnovers (L5) +19.6% more
Wisconsin: 10.8 vs Villanova: 8.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WIS Score 38.0 66
VILL Score 39.0 76
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.3 / 30.8 35.0 / 43.0
Assists 15.5 / 15.1 16.0 / 15.0
Blocks 2.2 / 2.1 7.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 47.3 / 40.8 40.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 69.7 / 82.2 68.0 / 60.0
Rebounding 33.4 / 37.2 40.0 / 35.0
Steals 7.0 / 6.3 9.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 8.7 / 10.8 8.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WIS
24-11-0 (68.6%)
Margin: 6.9 ATS +/-: +1.1
VILL Advantage
24-9-0 (72.7%)
Margin: 5.9 ATS +/-: +1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WIS
20-15-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 6.9 ATS +/-: +1.1
VILL Advantage
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 5.9 ATS +/-: +1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
WIS
22-13-0
O: 62.9% / U: 37.1% Total +/-: +3.5
VILL
20-13-0
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4% Total +/-: +1.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VILL
WIS
VILL
WIS
ML
44% 14-18
60% 21-14
72% 23-9
69% 24-11
ATS
56% 18-14
51% 18-17
72% 23-9
69% 24-11
TTL
41% 13-19
57% 20-15
100% 32-0
100% 35-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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