Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Braves @ Bears ALCN @ BAY

ALCORN STATE

BRAVESALCN

1-9  |  Road

56
FINAL
Fri, Dec 19 • 8:00 PM ET
Foster Pavilion
View Odds Details →

BAYLOR

BEARSBAY

7-2  |  Home

113
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
100%
📊
BEARS
0%
BRAVES --
BEARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
90.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
BAYLOR
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (Baylor)
BravesALCN (-3.5) 0 BearsBAY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Braves Cover

3.6%

Bears Cover

96.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BAY -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAY)

ALCN By 1-7 points

2.7%

ALCN By 8-14 points

0.5%

BAY By 1-7 points

10.7%

BAY By 8-14 points

21.6%

AI Model Projected Score
36
ALCORN STATE
54
BAYLOR
Simulated Score
56
ALCORN STATE
87
BAYLOR
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bears Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bears Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bears (+33.5) Win
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Sim Bears (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -31.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u160.5 Loss
Proj Total: 90.0
D
Sim u160.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 19, 2025 ALCN @ BAY 56 - 113
Dec 20, 2021 ALCN @ BAY 57 - 94
Dec 30, 2020 ALCN @ BAY 76 - 105
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +68.5% more
Baylor: 16.9 vs Alcorn State: 10.0
Rebounding (L5) +43.7% more
Baylor: 41.1 vs Alcorn State: 28.6
Blocks (L5) +27.5% more
Baylor: 5.4 vs Alcorn State: 4.2
Free Throw % (L5) +15.7%
Baylor: 76.4% vs Alcorn State: 60.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ALCN Score 36.0 56
BAY Score 54.0 113
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.4 / 36.2 43.0 / 32.0
Assists 16.9 / 10.0 22.0 / 9.0
Blocks 5.4 / 4.2 6.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 48.0 / 44.7 65.0 / 30.0
Free Throw % 76.4 / 60.7 87.0 / 86.0
Rebounding 41.1 / 28.6 50.0 / 26.0
Steals 7.0 / 8.6 9.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 11.7 / 19.6 14.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
23%MONEY77%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ALCN
9-23-0 (28.1%)
Margin: -13.3 ATS +/-: -0.8
BAY Advantage
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 5.3 ATS +/-: -1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ALCN Advantage
17-14-1 (54.8%)
Margin: -13.3 ATS +/-: -0.8
BAY
15-18-0 (45.5%)
Margin: 5.3 ATS +/-: -1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
ALCN
15-16-1
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: -0.5
BAY
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5% Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAY
ALCN
BAY
ALCN
ML
58% 19-14
66% 21-11
53% 17-15
75% 18-6
ATS
58% 19-14
68% 21-10-1
53% 17-15
75% 18-6
TTL
45% 15-18
47% 15-17
100% 32-0
100% 24-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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