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MOUNT ST. MARY'S

MOUNTAINEERSMSM

3-8  |  Road

67
FINAL
Fri, Dec 19 • 7:00 PM ET
Daskalakis Athletic Center
View Odds Details →

DREXEL

DRAGONSDREX

4-7  |  Home

75
AI Model Win Probability
MOUNTAINEERS
100%
📊
DRAGONS
0%
MOUNTAINEERS --
DRAGONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
131.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
DREXEL
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Drexel)
MountaineersMSM (-3.5) 0 DragonsDREX (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mountaineers Cover

30.9%

Dragons Cover

69.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DREX -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DREX)

MSM By 1-7 points

18.6%

MSM By 8-14 points

8.0%

DREX By 1-7 points

27.2%

DREX By 8-14 points

23.0%

AI Model Projected Score
63
MOUNT ST. MARY'S
68
DREXEL
Simulated Score
68
MOUNT ST. MARY'S
72
DREXEL
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Dragons Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Dragons Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Dragons (+5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim Dragons (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u140.5 Loss
Proj Total: 131.0
D
Sim u140.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 19, 2025 MSM @ DREX 67 - 75
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +22.8% more
Drexel: 4.7 vs Mount St. Mary's: 3.8
Turnovers (L5) +27.8% more
Mount St. Mary's: 17.1 vs Drexel: 12.3
Steals (L5) +26.9% more
Mount St. Mary's: 7.6 vs Drexel: 5.5
Assists (L5) +14.6% more
Mount St. Mary's: 15.6 vs Drexel: 13.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MSM Score 63.0 67
DREX Score 68.0 75
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.2 / 33.4 42.0 / 42.0
Assists 13.3 / 15.6 16.0 / 11.0
Blocks 4.7 / 3.8 3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 41.9 / 45.7 53.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 64.1 / 66.1 83.0 / 75.0
Rebounding 34.3 / 37.3 23.0 / 29.0
Steals 5.5 / 7.6 14.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 12.3 / 17.1 18.0 / 23.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
15%TICKETS85%
17%MONEY83%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
45%MONEY55%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
47%MONEY53%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MSM
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: 0.0
DREX Advantage
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MSM
17-13-1 (56.7%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: 0.0
DREX Advantage
18-13-1 (58.1%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MSM
10-21-0
O: 32.3% / U: 67.7% Total +/-: -3.9
DREX
14-17-1
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8% Total +/-: -2.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DREX
MSM
DREX
MSM
ML
58% 19-14
53% 17-15
81% 26-6
61% 19-12
ATS
70% 23-10
62% 20-12
81% 26-6
61% 19-12
TTL
48% 16-17
81% 26-6
100% 32-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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