FLORIDA ATLANTIC
OWLSFAU
8-3 | Road
75
SAINT MARY'S
GAELSSMC
9-2 | Home
88
AI Model Win Probability
OWLS
0%
GAELS
100%
OWLS
--
GAELS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
134.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-20.0
FLORIDA ATLANTIC
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +20.0 points (Florida Atlantic)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around FAU -20.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FAU)
FAU By 1-7 points
8.0%
FAU By 8-14 points
18.6%
SMC By 1-7 points
1.7%
SMC By 8-14 points
0.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Florida Atlantic
77
FLORIDA ATLANTIC
Saint Mary's
57
SAINT MARY'S
Simulated Score
Florida Atlantic
70
FLORIDA ATLANTIC
Saint Mary's
72
SAINT MARY'S
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Owls
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Gaels
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Owls (-13.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -20.0
D
Sim
Gaels (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u145.5
Loss
Proj Total: 134.0
D
Sim
u145.5
Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 19, 2025
FAU @ SMC
75 - 88
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+70.7% more
Florida Atlantic: 6.3
vs
Saint Mary's: 1.8
Assists (L5)
+45.3% more
Florida Atlantic: 16.9
vs
Saint Mary's: 9.3
Steals (L5)
+14.1% more
Florida Atlantic: 6.4
vs
Saint Mary's: 5.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+7.7%
Florida Atlantic: 37.4%
vs
Saint Mary's: 29.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
FAU Score
77.0
75
SMC Score
57.0
88
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
29.7 / 37.4
23.0 / 35.0
Assists
9.3 / 16.9
21.0 / 14.0
Blocks
1.8 / 6.3
3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
43.2 / 50.0
45.0 / 43.0
Free Throw %
78.8 / 76.9
79.0 / 64.0
Rebounding
38.2 / 41.4
45.0 / 31.0
Steals
5.5 / 6.4
6.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
11.7 / 11.6
13.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FAU
18-15-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 4.3
ATS +/-: +0.2
SMC
Advantage
27-6-0
(81.8%)
Margin: 12.8
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FAU
17-14-0
(54.8%)
Margin: 4.3
ATS +/-: +0.2
SMC
Advantage
19-13-0
(59.4%)
Margin: 12.8
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
FAU
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
SMC
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3%
Total +/-: -1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SMC
FAU
SMC
FAU
ML
56%
18-14
64%
21-12
82%
23-5
66%
21-11
ATS
62%
20-12
70%
23-10
83%
24-5
66%
21-11
TTL
53%
17-15
58%
19-14
100%
29-0
100%
32-0
Contextual Game News
