SAN DIEGO
TOREROSUSD
4-6 | Road
82
UC SAN DIEGO
TRITONSUCSD
10-1 | Home
80
AI Model Win Probability
TOREROS
100%
TRITONS
0%
TOREROS
--
TRITONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
90.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
UC SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (UC San Diego)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UCSD -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCSD)
USD By 1-7 points
2.7%
USD By 8-14 points
0.5%
UCSD By 1-7 points
10.7%
UCSD By 8-14 points
21.6%
AI Model Projected Score
San Diego
36
SAN DIEGO
UC San Diego
54
UC SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
San Diego
69
SAN DIEGO
UC San Diego
72
UC SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Tritons
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Tritons
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Tritons (+3.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Sim
Tritons (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u140.5
Loss
Proj Total: 90.0
D
Sim
u140.5
Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 19, 2025
USD @ UCSD
82 - 80
Dec 21, 2024
UCSD @ USD
77 - 71
Nov 11, 2023
USD @ UCSD
63 - 69
Dec 12, 2022
UCSD @ USD
58 - 84
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+35.7% more
UC San Diego: 40.2
vs
San Diego: 29.6
Field Goal % (L5)
+4.2%
UC San Diego: 48.2%
vs
San Diego: 43.9%
Blocks (L5)
+47.6% more
San Diego: 2.5
vs
UC San Diego: 1.3
Free Throw % (L5)
+16.1%
San Diego: 77.3%
vs
UC San Diego: 61.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
USD Score
36.0
82
UCSD Score
54.0
80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.5 / 33.3
31.0 / 36.0
Assists
15.5 / 14.7
14.0 / 19.0
Blocks
1.3 / 2.5
4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
48.2 / 43.9
51.0 / 45.0
Free Throw %
61.2 / 77.3
75.0 / 91.0
Rebounding
40.2 / 29.6
31.0 / 36.0
Steals
8.4 / 8.6
8.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
11.8 / 13.4
9.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USD
12-21-0
(36.4%)
Margin: -3.4
ATS +/-: -0.5
UCSD
Advantage
23-11-0
(67.7%)
Margin: 5.4
ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USD
16-15-0
(51.6%)
Margin: -3.4
ATS +/-: -0.5
UCSD
Advantage
17-15-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 5.4
ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
USD
12-17-2
O: 41.4% / U: 58.6%
Total +/-: +0.5
UCSD
12-20-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5%
Total +/-: -6.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCSD
USD
UCSD
USD
ML
56%
19-15
58%
19-14
65%
22-12
70%
23-10
ATS
50%
17-17
55%
18-15
65%
22-12
70%
23-10
TTL
62%
21-13
61%
20-13
100%
34-0
100%
33-0
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