Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Stags @ Blue Devils FAIR @ CCSU

FAIRFIELD

STAGSFAIR

6-5  |  Road

84
FINAL
Thu, Dec 18 • 7:00 PM ET
Detrick Gymnasium
View Odds Details →

CENTRAL CONNECTICUT

BLUE DEVILSCCSU

6-4  |  Home

70
AI Model Win Probability
STAGS
100%
📊
BLUE DEVILS
0%
STAGS --
BLUE DEVILS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
117.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
CENTRAL CONNECTICUT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (Central Connecticut)
StagsFAIR (-3.5) 0 Blue DevilsCCSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Stags Cover

4.5%

Blue Devils Cover

95.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CCSU -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CCSU)

FAIR By 1-7 points

3.3%

FAIR By 8-14 points

0.6%

CCSU By 1-7 points

12.2%

CCSU By 8-14 points

23.0%

AI Model Projected Score
50
FAIRFIELD
67
CENTRAL CONNECTICUT
Simulated Score
65
FAIRFIELD
72
CENTRAL CONNECTICUT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Blue Devils Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Blue Devils Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Blue Devils (-4.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim Blue Devils (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u150.5 Loss
Proj Total: 117.0
D
Sim u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 18, 2025 FAIR @ CCSU 84 - 70
Dec 18, 2024 CCSU @ FAIR 64 - 63
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +36.7% more
Central Connecticut: 5.5 vs Fairfield: 4.0
Steals (L5) +29.5% more
Central Connecticut: 6.9 vs Fairfield: 5.3
Free Throw % (L5) +17.1%
Central Connecticut: 70.9% vs Fairfield: 53.7%
Assists (L5) +15.8% more
Central Connecticut: 14.5 vs Fairfield: 12.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FAIR Score 50.0 84
CCSU Score 67.0 70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 40.6 / 38.7 32.0 / 43.0
Assists 14.5 / 12.6 16.0 / 14.0
Blocks 5.5 / 4.0 3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 50.1 / 43.1 40.0 / 51.0
Free Throw % 70.9 / 53.7 85.0 / 77.0
Rebounding 34.5 / 39.5 32.0 / 37.0
Steals 6.9 / 5.3 6.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 11.2 / 11.0 8.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
16%TICKETS84%
6%MONEY94%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
14%MONEY86%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
27%MONEY73%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FAIR Advantage
21-13-0 (61.8%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: +0.7
CCSU
18-12-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 2.9 ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FAIR
15-18-0 (45.5%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: +0.7
CCSU Advantage
14-13-1 (51.8%)
Margin: 2.9 ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
FAIR
14-19-0
O: 42.4% / U: 57.6% Total +/-: -0.2
CCSU
15-13-0
O: 53.6% / U: 46.4% Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CCSU
FAIR
CCSU
FAIR
ML
57% 17-13
55% 18-15
57% 17-13
61% 20-13
ATS
63% 19-11
48% 16-17
57% 17-13
61% 20-13
TTL
60% 18-12
48% 16-17
100% 30-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Duke Demolishes Belmont by 40 in Preseason Blowout
yahoo 0 minutes ago
Duke Dominates ACC Preseason Poll, But Wide-Open Race Looms Behi…
yahoo 3 days, 10 hours ago
Duke's Cameron Crazies Crowned Top Student Section for 2026-27
yahoo 6 days, 9 hours ago
Duke Hosts Five-Star Asa Montgomery for Official Visit, Looking …
yahoo 1 week ago
Rutgers Basketball Preseason: Standouts and Storylines from Tues…
yahoo 1 week, 1 day ago