Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Thunderbirds @ Lumberjacks SUU @ NAU

SOUTHERN UTAH

THUNDERBIRDSSUU

4-8  |  Road

57
FINAL
Thu, Dec 18 • 7:00 PM ET
J. Lawrence Walkup Skydome
View Odds Details →

NORTHERN ARIZONA

LUMBERJACKSNAU

4-6  |  Home

65
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDERBIRDS
100%
📊
LUMBERJACKS
0%
THUNDERBIRDS --
LUMBERJACKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
177.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-37.0
NORTHERN ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +37.0 points (Northern Arizona)
ThunderbirdsSUU (-3.5) 0 LumberjacksNAU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Thunderbirds Cover

0.0%

Lumberjacks Cover

100.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NAU -37.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NAU)

SUU By 1-7 points

0.0%

SUU By 8-14 points

0.0%

NAU By 1-7 points

0.1%

NAU By 8-14 points

1.1%

AI Model Projected Score
70
SOUTHERN UTAH
107
NORTHERN ARIZONA
Simulated Score
75
SOUTHERN UTAH
78
NORTHERN ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Lumberjacks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lumberjacks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Lumberjacks (-4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -37.0
D
Sim Lumberjacks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o150.5 Loss
Proj Total: 177.0
D
Sim u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 18, 2025 SUU @ NAU 57 - 65
Dec 21, 2024 NAU @ SUU 83 - 75
Dec 16, 2023 SUU @ NAU 74 - 76
Dec 17, 2022 NAU @ SUU 101 - 106
Feb 21, 2022 SUU @ NAU 79 - 48
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +55.2% more
Northern Arizona: 8.4 vs Southern Utah: 5.4
Turnovers (L5) +17.3% more
Northern Arizona: 13.9 vs Southern Utah: 11.9
Free Throw % (L5) +13.3%
Northern Arizona: 78.5% vs Southern Utah: 65.2%
Assists (L5) +21.6% more
Southern Utah: 16.3 vs Northern Arizona: 12.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SUU Score 70.0 57
NAU Score 107.0 65
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.5 / 30.8 50.0 / 38.0
Assists 12.8 / 16.3 9.0 / 9.0
Blocks 3.0 / 3.7 2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 44.2 / 46.5 42.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 78.5 / 65.2 65.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 30.3 / 35.4 35.0 / 36.0
Steals 8.4 / 5.4 11.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 13.9 / 11.9 8.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
9%TICKETS91%
14%MONEY86%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
24%MONEY76%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
41%MONEY59%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SUU
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -3.2 ATS +/-: 0.0
NAU
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -5.1 ATS +/-: -2.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SUU Advantage
14-14-1 (50.0%)
Margin: -3.2 ATS +/-: 0.0
NAU
14-15-0 (48.3%)
Margin: -5.1 ATS +/-: -2.7
⚖️ Over/Under
SUU
17-12-0
O: 58.6% / U: 41.4% Total +/-: +3.5
NAU
11-18-0
O: 37.9% / U: 62.1% Total +/-: -2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NAU
SUU
NAU
SUU
ML
62% 20-12
61% 19-12
81% 26-6
68% 21-10
ATS
62% 20-12
71% 22-9
81% 26-6
69% 22-10
TTL
66% 21-11
52% 16-15
100% 32-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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