Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bulldogs @ Racers DRKE @ MUR

DRAKE

BULLDOGSDRKE

6-5  |  Road

72
FINAL
Thu, Dec 18 • 8:00 PM ET
CFSB Center
View Odds Details →

MURRAY STATE

RACERSMUR

8-3  |  Home

81
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
100%
📊
RACERS
0%
BULLDOGS --
RACERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
87.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
MURRAY STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (Murray State)
BulldogsDRKE (-3.5) 0 RacersMUR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulldogs Cover

4.5%

Racers Cover

95.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MUR -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MUR)

DRKE By 1-7 points

3.3%

DRKE By 8-14 points

0.6%

MUR By 1-7 points

12.2%

MUR By 8-14 points

23.0%

AI Model Projected Score
35
DRAKE
52
MURRAY STATE
Simulated Score
76
DRAKE
71
MURRAY STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Racers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulldogs Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Racers (-4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim Bulldogs (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u150.5 Loss
Proj Total: 87.0
D
Sim u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 21, 2026 MUR @ DRKE 90 - 101
Dec 18, 2025 DRKE @ MUR 72 - 81
Feb 4, 2025 DRKE @ MUR 55 - 45
Jan 5, 2025 MUR @ DRKE 66 - 59
Feb 18, 2024 MUR @ DRKE 72 - 95
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +47.3% more
Murray State: 14.3 vs Drake: 9.7
Blocks (L5) +23.7% more
Murray State: 4.3 vs Drake: 3.5
Rebounding (L5) +21.6% more
Murray State: 40.9 vs Drake: 33.6
Steals (L5) +26.2% more
Drake: 4.6 vs Murray State: 3.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DRKE Score 35.0 72
MUR Score 52.0 81
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 42.5 / 45.8 35.0 / 19.0
Assists 18.3 / 17.9 10.0 / 9.0
Blocks 4.3 / 3.5 3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 51.3 / 50.2 40.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 74.0 / 81.7 84.0 / 74.0
Rebounding 40.9 / 33.6 34.0 / 35.0
Steals 3.4 / 4.6 7.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 14.3 / 9.7 5.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
8%TICKETS92%
30%MONEY70%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
55%MONEY45%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
18%MONEY82%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DRKE
14-20-0 (41.2%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-: -0.5
MUR Advantage
20-13-0 (60.6%)
Margin: 2.9 ATS +/-: -2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DRKE
11-21-0 (34.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-: -0.5
MUR Advantage
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: 2.9 ATS +/-: -2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
DRKE
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8% Total +/-: +3.9
MUR
19-14-0
O: 57.6% / U: 42.4% Total +/-: +4.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MUR
DRKE
MUR
DRKE
ML
58% 19-14
59% 20-14
61% 20-13
38% 13-21
ATS
52% 17-16
85% 29-5
61% 20-13
38% 13-21
TTL
70% 23-10
56% 19-15
100% 33-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Shockers Stumble in Charity Exhibition Against Murray State, 93-…
thesunflower 0 minutes ago
Nick Saban Declares Georgia the Most Complete Team in College Fo…
si 5 days, 12 hours ago
Kirby Smart Stays Silent on Nate Frazier's Injury Status as Geor…
si 1 week, 3 days ago
Georgia Bulldogs Set to Clash with Oklahoma Sooners as Heavy Fav…
si 2 weeks, 2 days ago
Georgia Bulldogs Release Availability Report for SEC Opener at A…
headtopics 3 weeks ago