Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Trojans @ Screaming Eagles LR @ USI

LITTLE ROCK

TROJANSLR

2-9  |  Road

77
FINAL
Thu, Dec 18 • 8:30 PM ET
Liberty Arena (IN)
View Odds Details →

SOUTHERN INDIANA

SCREAMING EAGLESUSI

3-7  |  Home

62
AI Model Win Probability
TROJANS
0%
📊
SCREAMING EAGLES
100%
TROJANS --
SCREAMING EAGLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
140.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
LITTLE ROCK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Little Rock)
TrojansLR (-3.5) 0 Screaming EaglesUSI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Trojans Cover

78.8%

Screaming Eagles Cover

21.2%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around LR -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LR)

LR By 1-7 points

25.3%

LR By 8-14 points

26.2%

USI By 1-7 points

13.7%

USI By 8-14 points

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
74
LITTLE ROCK
66
SOUTHERN INDIANA
Simulated Score
72
LITTLE ROCK
78
SOUTHERN INDIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Trojans Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Screaming Eagles Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Trojans (-4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim Screaming Eagles (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Sim u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 28, 2026 USI @ LR 70 - 89
Dec 18, 2025 LR @ USI 77 - 62
Feb 6, 2025 LR @ USI 74 - 56
Jan 12, 2025 USI @ LR 58 - 78
Feb 17, 2024 USI @ LR 62 - 80
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +34.2% more
Little Rock: 9.4 vs Southern Indiana: 6.2
Turnovers (L5) +28.0% more
Little Rock: 13.7 vs Southern Indiana: 9.9
Blocks (L5) +53.9% more
Southern Indiana: 5.3 vs Little Rock: 3.5
Rebounding (L5) +39.5% more
Southern Indiana: 37.9 vs Little Rock: 27.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LR Score 74.0 77
USI Score 66.0 62
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.6 / 32.2 38.0 / 41.0
Assists 11.6 / 12.6 9.0 / 5.0
Blocks 5.3 / 3.5 3.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 39.9 / 41.3 40.0 / 51.0
Free Throw % 63.4 / 60.3 44.0 / 63.0
Rebounding 37.9 / 27.2 28.0 / 43.0
Steals 6.2 / 9.4 9.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 9.9 / 13.7 11.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
33%MONEY67%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
64%MONEY36%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LR Advantage
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -3.6 ATS +/-: -2.0
USI
7-23-0 (23.3%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LR
12-18-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -3.6 ATS +/-: -2.0
USI Advantage
11-16-1 (40.7%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
LR
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.0
USI
11-17-0
O: 39.3% / U: 60.7% Total +/-: -3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USI
LR
USI
LR
ML
67% 20-10
52% 16-15
61% 17-11
68% 17-8
ATS
70% 21-9
45% 14-17
61% 17-11
68% 17-8
TTL
73% 22-8
58% 18-13
100% 28-0
100% 25-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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