ILLINOIS STATE
REDBIRDSILST
8-3 | Road
75
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
SALUKISSIU
6-5 | Home
68
AI Model Win Probability
REDBIRDS
0%
SALUKIS
100%
REDBIRDS
--
SALUKIS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
135.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SIU +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SIU)
ILST By 1-7 points
26.2%
ILST By 8-14 points
16.9%
SIU By 1-7 points
24.3%
SIU By 8-14 points
13.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Illinois State
68
ILLINOIS STATE
Southern Illinois
67
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
Simulated Score
Illinois State
68
ILLINOIS STATE
Southern Illinois
72
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Redbirds
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Salukis
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Salukis (+4.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim
Salukis (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u150.5
Win
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Sim
u150.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 3, 2026
SIU @ ILST
54 - 50
Dec 18, 2025
ILST @ SIU
75 - 68
Feb 25, 2025
ILST @ SIU
79 - 88
Jan 5, 2025
SIU @ ILST
54 - 85
Feb 10, 2024
ILST @ SIU
66 - 69
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+5.3%
Illinois State: 38.3%
vs
Southern Illinois: 33.0%
Field Goal % (L5)
+4.6%
Illinois State: 53.1%
vs
Southern Illinois: 48.5%
Turnovers (L5)
+24.1% more
Southern Illinois: 15.7
vs
Illinois State: 12.7
Rebounding (L5)
+22.2% more
Southern Illinois: 40.6
vs
Illinois State: 33.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ILST Score
68.0
75
SIU Score
67.0
68
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.0 / 38.3
31.0 / 28.0
Assists
15.5 / 16.3
11.0 / 16.0
Blocks
2.7 / 2.4
1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
48.5 / 53.1
49.0 / 49.0
Free Throw %
72.1 / 70.6
55.0 / 39.0
Rebounding
40.6 / 33.2
34.0 / 36.0
Steals
8.5 / 7.9
10.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
15.7 / 12.7
16.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ILST
Advantage
23-13-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 6.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
SIU
16-16-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 3.4
ATS +/-: +1.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ILST
Advantage
20-15-0
(57.1%)
Margin: 6.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
SIU
16-15-0
(51.6%)
Margin: 3.4
ATS +/-: +1.7
⚖️ Over/Under
ILST
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1%
Total +/-: -3.3
SIU
9-22-0
O: 29.0% / U: 71.0%
Total +/-: -5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SIU
ILST
SIU
ILST
ML
53%
17-15
42%
15-21
47%
15-17
71%
24-10
ATS
56%
18-14
58%
21-15
47%
15-17
71%
24-10
TTL
53%
17-15
58%
21-15
100%
32-0
100%
34-0