ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
15-12 | Road
126
CHARLOTTE
HORNETSCHA
8-18 | Home
133
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKS
0%
HORNETS
100%
HAWKS
--
HORNETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
201.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ATL -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
ATL By 1-7 points
24.3%
ATL By 8-14 points
26.8%
CHA By 1-7 points
12.2%
CHA By 8-14 points
4.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
105
ATLANTA
Charlotte
96
CHARLOTTE
Simulated Score
Atlanta
109
ATLANTA
Charlotte
115
CHARLOTTE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Hawks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hornets
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Hawks (+5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim
Hornets (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u240.5
Loss
Proj Total: 201.0
D
Sim
u240.5
Win
Proj Total: 224.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 11, 2026
ATL @ CHA
107 - 110
Feb 7, 2026
CHA @ ATL
126 - 119
Dec 18, 2025
ATL @ CHA
126 - 133
Nov 23, 2025
CHA @ ATL
110 - 113
Mar 18, 2025
ATL @ CHA
134 - 102
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+18.6% more
Atlanta: 9.4
vs
Charlotte: 7.6
Assists (L5)
+15.6% more
Atlanta: 31.5
vs
Charlotte: 26.6
Turnovers (L5)
+10.2% more
Atlanta: 16.9
vs
Charlotte: 15.2
Free Throw % (L5)
+6.0%
Atlanta: 84.7%
vs
Charlotte: 78.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
105.0
126
CHA Score
96.0
133
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.9 / 40.2
49.0 / 30.0
Assists
26.6 / 31.5
39.0 / 31.0
Blocks
5.3 / 5.3
3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
46.5 / 46.3
54.0 / 52.0
Free Throw %
78.6 / 84.7
65.0 / 86.0
Rebounding
44.7 / 46.3
37.0 / 35.0
Steals
7.6 / 9.4
11.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
15.2 / 16.9
16.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
CHA
45-39-0
(53.6%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
CHA
Advantage
50-34-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
CHA
32-52-0
O: 38.1% / U: 61.9%
Total +/-: -3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHA
ATL
CHA
ATL
ML
61%
60-39
50%
52-52
48%
40-44
55%
48-40
ATS
60%
59-40
53%
55-48-1
48%
40-44
55%
48-40
TTL
58%
57-42
53%
55-48-1
100%
84-0
100%
88-0
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