MIAMI
HEATMIA
14-12 | Road
106
BROOKLYN
NETSBKN
7-18 | Home
95
AI Model Win Probability
HEAT
0%
NETS
100%
HEAT
--
NETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
244.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-24.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +24.0 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIA -24.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
MIA By 1-7 points
4.0%
MIA By 8-14 points
12.2%
BKN By 1-7 points
0.6%
BKN By 8-14 points
0.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
134
MIAMI
Brooklyn
110
BROOKLYN
Simulated Score
Miami
109
MIAMI
Brooklyn
115
BROOKLYN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Heat
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Nets
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Heat (+7.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -24.0
D
Sim
Nets (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o228.0
Loss
Proj Total: 244.0
D
Sim
u228.0
Win
Proj Total: 224.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 5, 2026
BKN @ MIA
110 - 126
Mar 3, 2026
BKN @ MIA
98 - 124
Dec 18, 2025
MIA @ BKN
106 - 95
Feb 7, 2025
MIA @ BKN
86 - 102
Jan 25, 2025
MIA @ BKN
106 - 97
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+16.5% more
Miami: 6.2
vs
Brooklyn: 5.2
Assists (L5)
+24.7% more
Brooklyn: 29.7
vs
Miami: 23.8
Turnovers (L5)
+17.3% more
Brooklyn: 16.5
vs
Miami: 14.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+10.0%
Brooklyn: 40.4%
vs
Miami: 30.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
134.0
106
BKN Score
110.0
95
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.4 / 30.4
22.0 / 32.0
Assists
29.7 / 23.8
24.0 / 23.0
Blocks
5.2 / 6.2
7.0 / 8.0
Field Goal %
48.8 / 45.2
39.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
84.8 / 76.2
73.0 / 79.0
Rebounding
42.9 / 43.0
49.0 / 51.0
Steals
9.6 / 8.8
7.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
16.5 / 14.1
13.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
Advantage
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
BKN
20-62-0
(24.4%)
Margin: -10.0
ATS +/-: -1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
BKN
38-43-1
(46.9%)
Margin: -10.0
ATS +/-: -1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
BKN
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9%
Total +/-: -0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BKN
MIA
BKN
MIA
ML
53%
50-45
48%
46-50
59%
48-34
59%
48-34
ATS
52%
48-44-3
51%
49-47
59%
48-34
59%
48-34
TTL
57%
54-41
59%
57-39
100%
82-0
100%
82-0
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