Home / NBA Projections NBA / Rockets @ Pelicans HOU @ NO

HOUSTON

ROCKETSHOU

16-7  |  Road

128
FINAL
Thu, Dec 18 • 8:00 PM ET
Smoothie King Center
View Odds Details →

NEW ORLEANS

PELICANSNO

5-22  |  Home

133
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKETS
0%
📊
PELICANS
100%
ROCKETS --
PELICANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
232.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Houston)
RocketsHOU (-3.5) 0 PelicansNO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockets Cover

88.5%

Pelicans Cover

11.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around HOU -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

HOU By 1-7 points

20.1%

HOU By 8-14 points

27.2%

NO By 1-7 points

8.0%

NO By 8-14 points

2.2%

AI Model Projected Score
122
HOUSTON
110
NEW ORLEANS
Simulated Score
105
HOUSTON
110
NEW ORLEANS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rockets Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pelicans Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rockets (+9.5) Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim Pelicans (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u236.0 Loss
Proj Total: 232.0
D
Sim u236.0 Win
Proj Total: 215.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 29, 2026 HOU @ NO 134 - 102
Mar 13, 2026 NO @ HOU 105 - 107
Jan 18, 2026 NO @ HOU 110 - 119
Dec 18, 2025 HOU @ NO 128 - 133
Oct 14, 2025 HOU @ NO 130 - 128
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +28.7% more
Houston: 17.8 vs New Orleans: 12.7
Blocks (L5) +12.8% more
Houston: 5.9 vs New Orleans: 5.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +9.2%
Houston: 40.8% vs New Orleans: 31.6%
Free Throw % (L5) +4.5%
New Orleans: 83.9% vs Houston: 79.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 122.0 128
NO Score 110.0 133
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.6 / 40.8 41.0 / 31.0
Assists 28.3 / 26.2 27.0 / 30.0
Blocks 5.1 / 5.9 7.0 / 8.0
Field Goal % 49.4 / 50.2 51.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 83.9 / 79.4 86.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 47.4 / 46.5 41.0 / 58.0
Steals 8.3 / 8.3 15.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 12.7 / 17.8 12.0 / 20.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
91%TICKETS9%
79%MONEY21%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
60%MONEY40%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU Advantage
54-34-0 (61.4%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
NO
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
38-50-0 (43.2%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
NO Advantage
45-36-1 (55.6%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9% Total +/-: -0.3
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NO
HOU
NO
HOU
ML
62% 98-61
61% 69-44
58% 48-35
59% 51-35
ATS
68% 107-51-1
62% 70-43
58% 48-35
59% 51-35
TTL
75% 119-40
51% 58-55
100% 83-0
100% 86-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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