DETROIT
PISTONSDET
21-5 | Road
114
DALLAS
MAVERICKSDAL
10-17 | Home
116
AI Model Win Probability
PISTONS
0%
MAVERICKS
100%
PISTONS
--
MAVERICKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
202.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-24.0
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +24.0 points (Detroit)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DET -24.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)
DET By 1-7 points
4.0%
DET By 8-14 points
12.2%
DAL By 1-7 points
0.6%
DAL By 8-14 points
0.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Detroit
113
DETROIT
Dallas
89
DALLAS
Simulated Score
Detroit
118
DETROIT
Dallas
105
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Pistons
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pistons
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Pistons (+6)
Win
Proj Spread: -24.0
D
Sim
Pistons (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u230.0
Push
Proj Total: 202.0
D
Sim
u230.0
Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 18, 2025
DET @ DAL
114 - 116
Nov 1, 2025
DAL @ DET
110 - 122
Mar 21, 2025
DET @ DAL
117 - 123
Jan 31, 2025
DAL @ DET
102 - 117
Apr 12, 2024
DET @ DAL
107 - 89
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+21.1% more
Detroit: 9.9
vs
Dallas: 7.8
Blocks (L5)
+18.5% more
Dallas: 5.7
vs
Detroit: 4.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DET Score
113.0
114
DAL Score
89.0
116
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.6 / 37.3
19.0 / 18.0
Assists
27.0 / 26.2
22.0 / 26.0
Blocks
5.7 / 4.8
15.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
50.5 / 49.2
45.0 / 39.0
Free Throw %
74.3 / 74.6
86.0 / 70.0
Rebounding
43.8 / 42.9
51.0 / 62.0
Steals
7.8 / 9.9
4.0 / 11.0
Turnovers
13.7 / 14.2
17.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
Advantage
67-29-0
(69.8%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
DAL
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
Advantage
50-46-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
DAL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
45-50-1
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6%
Total +/-: -0.8
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
DET
DAL
DET
ML
62%
63-39
55%
64-53
54%
44-37
49%
47-49
ATS
67%
68-34
53%
60-54-3
54%
44-37
49%
47-49
TTL
59%
60-41-1
60%
70-46-1
100%
81-0
100%
96-0
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