Home / NBA Projections NBA / Lakers @ Jazz LAL @ UTAH

LOS ANGELES

LAKERSLAL

18-7  |  Road

143
FINAL
Thu, Dec 18 • 9:00 PM ET
Delta Center
View Odds Details →

UTAH

JAZZUTAH

10-15  |  Home

135
AI Model Win Probability
LAKERS
100%
📊
JAZZ
0%
LAKERS --
JAZZ --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
279.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
UTAH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Utah)
LakersLAL (-3.5) 0 JazzUTAH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lakers Cover

24.2%

Jazz Cover

75.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UTAH -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTAH)

LAL By 1-7 points

15.3%

LAL By 8-14 points

5.8%

UTAH By 1-7 points

26.2%

UTAH By 8-14 points

25.3%

AI Model Projected Score
136
LOS ANGELES
143
UTAH
Simulated Score
112
LOS ANGELES
118
UTAH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Jazz Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Jazz Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Jazz (+9) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Jazz (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o241.5 Win
Proj Total: 279.0
D
Sim u241.5 Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 12, 2026 UTAH @ LAL 107 - 131
Dec 18, 2025 LAL @ UTAH 143 - 135
Nov 23, 2025 LAL @ UTAH 108 - 106
Nov 18, 2025 UTAH @ LAL 126 - 140
Feb 12, 2025 LAL @ UTAH 119 - 131
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +34.8% more
Utah: 30.6 vs Los Angeles: 22.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.5%
Utah: 36.7% vs Los Angeles: 33.1%
Blocks (L5) +48.6% more
Los Angeles: 6.6 vs Utah: 3.4
Turnovers (L5) +10.9% more
Los Angeles: 15.4 vs Utah: 13.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAL Score 136.0 143
UTAH Score 143.0 135
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.7 / 33.1 49.0 / 33.0
Assists 30.6 / 22.7 31.0 / 32.0
Blocks 3.4 / 6.6 1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 48.1 / 46.7 52.0 / 53.0
Free Throw % 77.8 / 76.6 66.0 / 82.0
Rebounding 46.1 / 46.6 39.0 / 48.0
Steals 7.2 / 7.5 4.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 13.8 / 15.4 13.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
90%TICKETS10%
75%MONEY25%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
70%MONEY30%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
64%MONEY36%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAL Advantage
57-35-0 (62.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
UTAH
22-60-0 (26.8%)
Margin: -8.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAL Advantage
51-41-0 (55.4%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
UTAH
41-41-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -8.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.4
UTAH
49-33-0
O: 59.8% / U: 40.2% Total +/-: +5.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTAH
LAL
UTAH
LAL
ML
60% 96-63
61% 68-43
48% 40-43
54% 49-42
ATS
68% 108-51
61% 67-43-1
48% 40-43
54% 49-42
TTL
75% 119-39-1
61% 66-43-2
100% 83-0
100% 91-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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