Home / NBA Projections NBA / Kings @ Trail Blazers SAC @ POR

SACRAMENTO

KINGSSAC

6-20  |  Road

133
FINAL
Thu, Dec 18 • 10:00 PM ET
Moda Center
View Odds Details →

PORTLAND

TRAIL BLAZERSPOR

10-16  |  Home

134
AI Model Win Probability
KINGS
100%
📊
TRAIL BLAZERS
0%
KINGS --
TRAIL BLAZERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
235.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-25.0
PORTLAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +25.0 points (Portland)
KingsSAC (-3.5) 0 Trail BlazersPOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Kings Cover

0.6%

Trail Blazers Cover

99.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around POR -25.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (POR)

SAC By 1-7 points

0.5%

SAC By 8-14 points

0.1%

POR By 1-7 points

3.3%

POR By 8-14 points

10.7%

AI Model Projected Score
105
SACRAMENTO
130
PORTLAND
Simulated Score
107
SACRAMENTO
118
PORTLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Trail Blazers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Trail Blazers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Trail Blazers (-9) Win
Proj Spread: -25.0
D
Sim Trail Blazers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u239.5 Loss
Proj Total: 235.0
D
Sim u239.5 Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 12, 2026 SAC @ POR 110 - 122
Jan 18, 2026 POR @ SAC 117 - 110
Dec 20, 2025 POR @ SAC 98 - 93
Dec 18, 2025 SAC @ POR 133 - 134
Oct 10, 2025 SAC @ POR 123 - 124
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +22.4% more
Portland: 18.1 vs Sacramento: 14.8
Assists (L5) +13.8% more
Portland: 26.1 vs Sacramento: 22.9
Free Throw % (L5) +11.5%
Portland: 82.6% vs Sacramento: 71.1%
Rebounding (L5) +9.8% more
Portland: 43.7 vs Sacramento: 39.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SAC Score 105.0 133
POR Score 130.0 134
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.9 / 35.8 33.0 / 32.0
Assists 26.1 / 22.9 30.0 / 29.0
Blocks 5.5 / 6.1 6.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 45.6 / 46.3 48.0 / 51.0
Free Throw % 82.6 / 71.1 64.0 / 91.0
Rebounding 43.7 / 39.7 44.0 / 42.0
Steals 7.7 / 7.7 6.0 / 13.0
Turnovers 18.1 / 14.8 21.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
23%TICKETS77%
39%MONEY61%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
79%MONEY21%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
82%MONEY18%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SAC
22-60-0 (26.8%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
POR Advantage
44-44-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SAC
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
POR Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +0.8
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
POR
SAC
POR
SAC
ML
53% 56-49
55% 55-45
55% 49-40
61% 50-32
ATS
62% 65-39-1
54% 52-45-3
55% 49-40
61% 50-32
TTL
56% 58-46-1
58% 57-42-1
100% 89-0
100% 82-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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