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GEORGIA STATE

PANTHERSGAST

2-9  |  Road

67
FINAL
Thu, Dec 18 • 8:00 PM ET
Jack and Ruth Ann Hill Convocation Center
View Odds Details →

GEORGIA SOUTHERN

EAGLESGASO

8-5  |  Home

90
AI Model Win Probability
PANTHERS
0%
📊
EAGLES
100%
PANTHERS --
EAGLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
186.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.0
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
PanthersGAST (-3.5) 0 EaglesGASO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Panthers Cover

42.1%

Eagles Cover

57.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around GASO +2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GASO)

GAST By 1-7 points

26.8%

GAST By 8-14 points

18.6%

GASO By 1-7 points

23.0%

GASO By 8-14 points

12.2%

AI Model Projected Score
94
GEORGIA STATE
92
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
Simulated Score
71
GEORGIA STATE
75
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Panthers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Eagles Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Eagles (+4.5) Win
Proj Spread: +2.0
D
Sim Eagles (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o150.5 Win
Proj Total: 186.0
D
Sim u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 19, 2026 GASO @ GAST 64 - 66
Dec 18, 2025 GAST @ GASO 67 - 90
Mar 6, 2025 GASO @ GAST 71 - 80
Feb 28, 2025 GAST @ GASO 75 - 76
Jan 8, 2025 GASO @ GAST 78 - 82
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +13.1% more
Georgia State: 10.8 vs Georgia Southern: 9.4
Free Throw % (L5) +3.5%
Georgia State: 77.6% vs Georgia Southern: 74.1%
Blocks (L5) +55.2% more
Georgia Southern: 3.9 vs Georgia State: 2.5
Assists (L5) +44.3% more
Georgia Southern: 13.0 vs Georgia State: 9.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GAST Score 94.0 67
GASO Score 92.0 90
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.6 / 27.0 37.0 / 37.0
Assists 13.0 / 9.0 14.0 / 14.0
Blocks 3.9 / 2.5 1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 47.5 / 35.2 37.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 74.1 / 77.6 89.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 35.4 / 36.2 45.0 / 35.0
Steals 8.7 / 6.2 9.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 9.4 / 10.8 7.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
6%MONEY94%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
39%MONEY61%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GAST
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -4.3 ATS +/-: -1.5
GASO Advantage
21-16-0 (56.8%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GAST
13-17-0 (43.3%)
Margin: -4.3 ATS +/-: -1.5
GASO Advantage
17-18-0 (48.6%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
GAST
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3% Total +/-: -2.4
GASO
18-17-0
O: 51.4% / U: 48.6% Total +/-: +2.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GASO
GAST
GASO
GAST
ML
56% 20-16
56% 18-14
58% 19-14
71% 22-9
ATS
64% 23-13
59% 19-13
58% 19-14
71% 22-9
TTL
61% 22-14
59% 19-13
100% 33-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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