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TAMPA BAY

LIGHTNINGTB

0-0-0  |  Road

2
FINAL
Mon, Sep 22 • 7:00 PM ET
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CAROLINA

HURRICANESCAR

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1
AI Model Win Probability
LIGHTNING
100%
📊
HURRICANES
0%
LIGHTNING --
HURRICANES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
CAROLINA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Carolina)
LightningTB (-3.5) 0 HurricanesCAR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lightning Cover

47.0%

Hurricanes Cover

53.0%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around CAR -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CAR)

TB By 1 goal

16.8%

TB By 2-3 goals

17.1%

CAR By 1 goal

18.1%

CAR By 2-3 goals

20.3%

AI Model Projected Score
2.74
TAMPA BAY
2.89
CAROLINA
Simulated Score
3
TAMPA BAY
4
CAROLINA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Hurricanes Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Hurricanes Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Hurricanes (+0) Loss
Proj Goals: -0.1
D
Sim Hurricanes (+0) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 5.6
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 14, 2026 CAR @ TB 4 - 2
Feb 26, 2026 TB @ CAR 4 - 5
Dec 20, 2025 CAR @ TB 4 - 6
Sep 26, 2025 CAR @ TB 5 - 6
Sep 22, 2025 TB @ CAR 2 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +58.1% more
Carolina: 43.1 vs Tampa Bay: 27.3
Faceoff % (L5) +2.2%
Carolina: 53.5% vs Tampa Bay: 51.4%
Blocked Shots (L5) +15.3% more
Tampa Bay: 15.1 vs Carolina: 12.8
Power Play % (L5) +3.8%
Tampa Bay: 15.8% vs Carolina: 12.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TB Score 2.7 2
CAR Score 2.9 1
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CAR
TB
CAR
TB
ML
75% 3-1
67% 2-1
25% 1-3
67% 2-1
ATS
50% 2-2
67% 2-1
100% 4-0
33% 1-2
TTL
0% 0-4
67% 2-1
25% 1-3
100% 3-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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