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TAMPA BAY

LIGHTNINGTB

0-0-0  |  Road

3
FINAL
Tue, Sep 23 • 8:00 PM ET
Bridgestone Arena
View Odds Details →

NASHVILLE

PREDATORSNSH

0-0-0  |  Home

2
AI Model Win Probability
LIGHTNING
100%
📊
PREDATORS
0%
LIGHTNING --
PREDATORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.2
NASHVILLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (Nashville)
LightningTB (-3.5) 0 PredatorsNSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lightning Cover

28.3%

Predators Cover

71.7%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around NSH -1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NSH)

TB By 1 goal

11.2%

TB By 2-3 goals

8.3%

NSH By 1 goal

19.7%

NSH By 2-3 goals

31.1%

AI Model Projected Score
2.37
TAMPA BAY
3.52
NASHVILLE
Simulated Score
4
TAMPA BAY
2
NASHVILLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Predators Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lightning Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Predators (+0) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.2
D
Sim Lightning (-0) Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 5.9
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 29, 2026 NSH @ TB 2 - 3
Oct 28, 2025 TB @ NSH 5 - 2
Sep 27, 2025 NSH @ TB 1 - 4
Sep 23, 2025 TB @ NSH 3 - 2
Nov 29, 2024 TB @ NSH 3 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5) +22.8% more
Nashville: 29.9 vs Tampa Bay: 24.4
Power Play % (L5) +12.3%
Nashville: 28.1% vs Tampa Bay: 15.8%
Takeaways (L5) +15.4% more
Tampa Bay: 3.3 vs Nashville: 2.8
Hits (L5) +15.4% more
Tampa Bay: 26.9 vs Nashville: 22.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TB Score 2.4 3
NSH Score 3.5 2
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NSH
TB
NSH
TB
ML
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
ATS
0% 0-3
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
TTL
100% 3-0
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
100% 3-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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