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CAROLINA

HURRICANESCAR

0-0-0  |  Road

5
FINAL
Fri, Sep 26 • 7:00 PM ET
Benchmark International Arena
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

LIGHTNINGTB

0-0-0  |  Home

6
AI Model Win Probability
HURRICANES
0%
📊
LIGHTNING
100%
HURRICANES --
LIGHTNING --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
CAROLINA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (Carolina)
HurricanesCAR (-3.5) 0 LightningTB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hurricanes Cover

62.2%

Lightning Cover

37.8%

-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around CAR -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CAR)

CAR By 1 goal

19.4%

CAR By 2-3 goals

25.5%

TB By 1 goal

14.3%

TB By 2-3 goals

12.5%

AI Model Projected Score
2.88
CAROLINA
2.26
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
2
CAROLINA
3
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Hurricanes Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lightning Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Hurricanes (-0) Loss
Proj Goals: -0.6
D
Sim Lightning (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 5.1
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 14, 2026 CAR @ TB 4 - 2
Feb 26, 2026 TB @ CAR 4 - 5
Dec 20, 2025 CAR @ TB 4 - 6
Sep 26, 2025 CAR @ TB 5 - 6
Sep 22, 2025 TB @ CAR 2 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5) +21.1% more
Carolina: 2.8 vs Tampa Bay: 2.2
Hits (L5) +13.1% more
Carolina: 32.5 vs Tampa Bay: 28.2
Faceoff % (L5) +2.2%
Carolina: 53.5% vs Tampa Bay: 51.4%
Blocked Shots (L5) +18.0% more
Tampa Bay: 15.1 vs Carolina: 12.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CAR Score 2.9 5
TB Score 2.3 6
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
CAR
TB
CAR
ML
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
75% 3-1
40% 2-3
ATS
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
80% 4-1
TTL
75% 3-1
0% 0-5
100% 4-0
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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