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WASHINGTON

CAPITALSWSH

0-0-0  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sun, Sep 28 • 3:00 PM ET
Prudential Center
View Odds Details →

NEW JERSEY

DEVILSNJ

0-0-0  |  Home

2
AI Model Win Probability
CAPITALS
0%
📊
DEVILS
100%
CAPITALS --
DEVILS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
4.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Washington)
CapitalsWSH (-3.5) 0 DevilsNJ (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Capitals Cover

54.4%

Devils Cover

45.6%

-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around WSH -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)

WSH By 1 goal

18.3%

WSH By 2-3 goals

21.1%

NJ By 1 goal

16.5%

NJ By 2-3 goals

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
2.31
WASHINGTON
2.09
NEW JERSEY
Simulated Score
3
WASHINGTON
4
NEW JERSEY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Capitals Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Devils Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Capitals (-0) Win
Proj Goals: -0.2
D
Sim Devils (+0) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 4.4
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 2, 2026 WSH @ NJ 3 - 7
Mar 20, 2026 NJ @ WSH 1 - 2
Dec 27, 2025 WSH @ NJ 4 - 3
Nov 15, 2025 NJ @ WSH 3 - 2
Sep 28, 2025 WSH @ NJ 3 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5) +50.0% more
Washington: 1.7 vs New Jersey: 0.9
Power Play % (L5) +5.8%
Washington: 11.7% vs New Jersey: 5.9%
Shots on Goal (L5) +43.7% more
New Jersey: 29.7 vs Washington: 20.7
Faceoff % (L5) +2.0%
New Jersey: 49.1% vs Washington: 47.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 2.3 3
NJ Score 2.1 2
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NJ
WSH
NJ
WSH
ML
33% 1-2
100% 3-0
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
ATS
0% 0-3
100% 3-0
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
TTL
0% 0-2-1
33% 1-2
50% 1-1-1
33% 1-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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