FLORIDA
PANTHERSFLA
0-0-0 | Road
2
TAMPA BAY
LIGHTNINGTB
0-0-0 | Home
3
AI Model Win Probability
PANTHERS
0%
LIGHTNING
100%
PANTHERS
--
LIGHTNING
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.1
FLORIDA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.1 points (Florida)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around FLA -2.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FLA)
FLA By 1 goal
16.9%
FLA By 2-3 goals
37.7%
TB By 1 goal
5.9%
TB By 2-3 goals
3.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Florida
4.57
FLORIDA
Tampa Bay
2.44
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
Florida
3
FLORIDA
Tampa Bay
4
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Panthers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Lightning
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Panthers (-0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -2.1
D
Sim
Lightning (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 5, 2026
FLA @ TB
1 - 6
Dec 27, 2025
TB @ FLA
4 - 2
Dec 15, 2025
FLA @ TB
5 - 2
Nov 15, 2025
TB @ FLA
3 - 1
Oct 4, 2025
TB @ FLA
0 - 7
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+18.4% more
Florida: 35.0
vs
Tampa Bay: 28.6
Shots on Goal (L5)
+12.6% more
Florida: 27.9
vs
Tampa Bay: 24.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
FLA Score
4.6
2
TB Score
2.4
3
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
FLA
TB
FLA
ML
67%
2-1
0%
0-4
67%
2-1
0%
0-4
ATS
67%
2-1
25%
1-3
33%
1-2
50%
2-2
TTL
67%
2-1
25%
1-3
100%
3-0
0%
0-4
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