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FLORIDA

PANTHERSFLA

0-0-0  |  Road

2
FINAL
Thu, Oct 2 • 7:00 PM ET
Benchmark International Arena
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

LIGHTNINGTB

0-0-0  |  Home

5
AI Model Win Probability
PANTHERS
0%
📊
LIGHTNING
100%
PANTHERS --
LIGHTNING --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.1
FLORIDA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.1 points (Florida)
PanthersFLA (-3.5) 0 LightningTB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Panthers Cover

85.7%

Lightning Cover

14.3%

-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around FLA -2.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FLA)

FLA By 1 goal

16.9%

FLA By 2-3 goals

37.7%

TB By 1 goal

5.9%

TB By 2-3 goals

3.2%

AI Model Projected Score
4.57
FLORIDA
2.44
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
3
FLORIDA
4
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Panthers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lightning Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Panthers (-0) Loss
Proj Goals: -2.1
D
Sim Lightning (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 5, 2026 FLA @ TB 1 - 6
Dec 27, 2025 TB @ FLA 4 - 2
Dec 15, 2025 FLA @ TB 5 - 2
Nov 15, 2025 TB @ FLA 3 - 1
Oct 4, 2025 TB @ FLA 0 - 7
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +18.4% more
Florida: 23.3 vs Tampa Bay: 19.0
Shots on Goal (L5) +12.6% more
Florida: 27.9 vs Tampa Bay: 24.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FLA Score 4.6 2
TB Score 2.4 5
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
FLA
TB
FLA
ML
67% 2-1
0% 0-4
67% 2-1
0% 0-4
ATS
67% 2-1
25% 1-3
33% 1-2
50% 2-2
TTL
67% 2-1
25% 1-3
100% 3-0
0% 0-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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