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TAMPA BAY

LIGHTNINGTB

0-0-0  |  Road

0
FINAL
Sat, Oct 4 • 7:00 PM ET
Amerant Bank Arena
View Odds Details →

FLORIDA

PANTHERSFLA

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7
AI Model Win Probability
LIGHTNING
100%
📊
PANTHERS
0%
LIGHTNING --
PANTHERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.3
FLORIDA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.3 points (Florida)
LightningTB (-3.5) 0 PanthersFLA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lightning Cover

25.1%

Panthers Cover

74.9%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around FLA -1.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FLA)

TB By 1 goal

10.1%

TB By 2-3 goals

7.0%

FLA By 1 goal

19.5%

FLA By 2-3 goals

32.8%

AI Model Projected Score
3.02
TAMPA BAY
4.36
FLORIDA
Simulated Score
2
TAMPA BAY
4
FLORIDA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Panthers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Panthers Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Panthers (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -1.3
D
Sim Panthers (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.4
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 5, 2026 FLA @ TB 1 - 6
Dec 27, 2025 TB @ FLA 4 - 2
Dec 15, 2025 FLA @ TB 5 - 2
Nov 15, 2025 TB @ FLA 3 - 1
Oct 4, 2025 TB @ FLA 0 - 7
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5) +38.0% more
Florida: 1.1 vs Tampa Bay: 0.7
Shots on Goal (L5) +14.4% more
Florida: 27.9 vs Tampa Bay: 24.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TB Score 3.0 0
FLA Score 4.4 7
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FLA
TB
FLA
TB
ML
0% 0-4
67% 2-1
0% 0-4
67% 2-1
ATS
25% 1-3
67% 2-1
50% 2-2
33% 1-2
TTL
25% 1-3
67% 2-1
0% 0-4
100% 3-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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