UT RIO GRANDE VALLEY
VAQUEROSRGV
0-1 | Road
95
SOUTHERN UTAH
THUNDERBIRDSSUU
0-1 | Home
72
AI Model Win Probability
VAQUEROS
100%
THUNDERBIRDS
0%
VAQUEROS
--
THUNDERBIRDS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
125.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-53.0
SOUTHERN UTAH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +53.0 points (Southern Utah)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SUU -53.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SUU)
RGV By 1-7 points
0.0%
RGV By 8-14 points
0.0%
SUU By 1-7 points
0.0%
SUU By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
UT Rio Grande Valley
36
UT RIO GRANDE VALLEY
Southern Utah
89
SOUTHERN UTAH
Simulated Score
UT Rio Grande Valley
70
UT RIO GRANDE VALLEY
Southern Utah
78
SOUTHERN UTAH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Thunderbirds
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Thunderbirds
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Thunderbirds (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -53.0
D
Sim
Thunderbirds (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u160.0
Loss
Proj Total: 125.0
D
Sim
u160.0
Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 8, 2025
RGV @ SUU
95 - 72
Dec 18, 2024
SUU @ RGV
73 - 78
Mar 9, 2024
SUU @ RGV
68 - 59
Feb 3, 2024
RGV @ SUU
59 - 79
Dec 31, 2022
RGV @ SUU
88 - 94
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+61.1% more
Southern Utah: 5.1
vs
UT Rio Grande Valley: 3.1
Rebounding (L5)
+15.0% more
Southern Utah: 37.0
vs
UT Rio Grande Valley: 32.2
Turnovers (L5)
+10.7% more
Southern Utah: 15.3
vs
UT Rio Grande Valley: 13.8
Assists (L5)
+39.6% more
UT Rio Grande Valley: 17.4
vs
Southern Utah: 10.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
RGV Score
36.0
95
SUU Score
89.0
72
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
21.6 / 38.9
31.0 / 57.0
Assists
10.5 / 17.4
14.0 / 20.0
Blocks
5.1 / 3.1
10.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
37.5 / 46.5
40.0 / 50.0
Free Throw %
79.7 / 81.9
63.0 / 60.0
Rebounding
37.0 / 32.2
34.0 / 48.0
Steals
5.5 / 7.8
3.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
15.3 / 13.8
11.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
RGV
Advantage
19-14-0
(57.6%)
Margin: 6.4
ATS +/-: +4.1
SUU
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -3.2
ATS +/-: 0.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
RGV
Advantage
18-13-0
(58.1%)
Margin: 6.4
ATS +/-: +4.1
SUU
14-14-1
(50.0%)
Margin: -3.2
ATS +/-: 0.0
⚖️ Over/Under
RGV
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1%
Total +/-: -1.5
SUU
17-12-0
O: 58.6% / U: 41.4%
Total +/-: +3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SUU
RGV
SUU
RGV
ML
61%
19-12
53%
16-14
68%
21-10
54%
15-13
ATS
71%
22-9
53%
16-14
69%
22-10
54%
15-13
TTL
52%
16-15
60%
18-12
100%
32-0
100%
28-0