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MISSISSIPPI STATE

BULLDOGSMSST

13-19  |  Road

78
FINAL
Fri, Nov 21 • 7:00 PM ET
T-Mobile Center
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NEW MEXICO

LOBOSUNM

26-11  |  Home

80
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
100%
📊
LOBOS
0%
BULLDOGS --
LOBOS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
112.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-40.0
NEW MEXICO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +40.0 points (New Mexico)
BulldogsMSST (-3.5) 0 LobosUNM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulldogs Cover

0.0%

Lobos Cover

100.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UNM -40.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNM)

MSST By 1-7 points

0.0%

MSST By 8-14 points

0.0%

UNM By 1-7 points

0.1%

UNM By 8-14 points

0.5%

AI Model Projected Score
36
MISSISSIPPI STATE
76
NEW MEXICO
Simulated Score
67
MISSISSIPPI STATE
71
NEW MEXICO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Lobos Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lobos Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Lobos (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -40.0
D
Sim Lobos (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 112.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 21, 2025 MSST @ UNM 78 - 80
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +44.2% more
New Mexico: 8.8 vs Mississippi State: 6.1
Blocks (L5) +45.6% more
Mississippi State: 4.6 vs New Mexico: 2.5
Turnovers (L5) +16.6% more
Mississippi State: 15.0 vs New Mexico: 12.5
Free Throw % (L5) +4.4%
Mississippi State: 74.2% vs New Mexico: 69.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MSST Score 36.0 78
UNM Score 76.0 80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.8 / 33.0 33.0 / 31.0
Assists 13.8 / 14.0 11.0 / 13.0
Blocks 2.5 / 4.6 0.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 42.8 / 45.1 41.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 69.8 / 74.2 76.0 / 54.0
Rebounding 35.3 / 38.4 46.0 / 36.0
Steals 8.8 / 6.1 2.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 12.5 / 15.0 10.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MSST
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -4.4
UNM Advantage
26-11-0 (70.3%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +2.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MSST
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -4.4
UNM Advantage
19-16-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +2.6
⚖️ Over/Under
MSST
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.1
UNM
23-12-0
O: 65.7% / U: 34.3% Total +/-: +2.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNM
MSST
UNM
MSST
ML
57% 21-16
66% 21-11
74% 25-9
55% 17-14
ATS
57% 21-16
56% 18-14
74% 25-9
55% 17-14
TTL
41% 15-22
59% 19-13
100% 34-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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