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IONA

GAELSIONA

18-14  |  Road

91
FINAL
Sat, Nov 22 • 5:30 PM ET
UVI Sports & Fitness Center
View Odds Details →

OREGON STATE

BEAVERSORST

17-16  |  Home

84
AI Model Win Probability
GAELS
100%
📊
BEAVERS
0%
GAELS --
BEAVERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
143.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
OREGON STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (Oregon State)
GaelsIONA (-3.5) 0 BeaversORST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Gaels Cover

1.8%

Beavers Cover

98.2%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ORST -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ORST)

IONA By 1-7 points

1.4%

IONA By 8-14 points

0.2%

ORST By 1-7 points

6.8%

ORST By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
61
IONA
82
OREGON STATE
Simulated Score
68
IONA
72
OREGON STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Beavers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Beavers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Beavers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -21.0
D
Sim Beavers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 22, 2025 IONA @ ORST 91 - 84
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +14.2%
Oregon State: 81.3% vs Iona: 67.0%
Blocks (L5) +25.4% more
Iona: 2.8 vs Oregon State: 2.1
Assists (L5) +18.1% more
Iona: 15.0 vs Oregon State: 12.3
Turnovers (L5) +9.5% more
Iona: 13.9 vs Oregon State: 12.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
IONA Score 61.0 91
ORST Score 82.0 84
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.6 / 35.3 30.0 / 35.0
Assists 12.3 / 15.0 20.0 / 12.0
Blocks 2.1 / 2.8 9.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 41.0 / 47.4 43.0 / 38.0
Free Throw % 81.3 / 67.0 58.0 / 82.0
Rebounding 31.4 / 34.4 43.0 / 49.0
Steals 6.3 / 6.8 9.0 / 12.0
Turnovers 12.5 / 13.9 15.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IONA Advantage
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: 0.0
ORST
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IONA Advantage
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: 0.0
ORST
16-17-0 (48.5%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
IONA
12-20-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5% Total +/-: -1.6
ORST
19-14-0
O: 57.6% / U: 42.4% Total +/-: +1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ORST
IONA
ORST
IONA
ML
45% 15-18
41% 13-19
59% 19-13
62% 20-12
ATS
48% 16-17
53% 17-15
59% 19-13
62% 20-12
TTL
55% 18-15
66% 21-11
100% 32-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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