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NC STATE

WOLFPACKNCSU

20-14  |  Road

81
FINAL
Tue, Nov 25 • 2:30 PM ET
Lahaina Civic Center
View Odds Details →

BOISE STATE

BRONCOSBOIS

20-12  |  Home

70
AI Model Win Probability
WOLFPACK
100%
📊
BRONCOS
0%
WOLFPACK --
BRONCOS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
131.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
BOISE STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Boise State)
WolfpackNCSU (-3.5) 0 BroncosBOIS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wolfpack Cover

46.0%

Broncos Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BOIS -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOIS)

NCSU By 1-7 points

24.3%

NCSU By 8-14 points

13.7%

BOIS By 1-7 points

26.2%

BOIS By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
65
NC STATE
66
BOISE STATE
Simulated Score
68
NC STATE
72
BOISE STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Broncos Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Broncos Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Broncos (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Broncos (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 131.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 25, 2025 NCSU @ BOIS 81 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +4.1%
Boise State: 81.3% vs NC State: 77.2%
Blocks (L5) +44.2% more
NC State: 2.7 vs Boise State: 1.5
Assists (L5) +22.8% more
NC State: 15.2 vs Boise State: 11.7
Steals (L5) +22.5% more
NC State: 6.4 vs Boise State: 5.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NCSU Score 65.0 81
BOIS Score 66.0 70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.9 / 37.5 33.0 / 43.0
Assists 11.7 / 15.2 11.0 / 15.0
Blocks 1.5 / 2.7 2.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 41.1 / 46.8 34.0 / 50.0
Free Throw % 81.3 / 77.2 66.0 / 78.0
Rebounding 35.4 / 36.9 38.0 / 36.0
Steals 5.0 / 6.4 2.0 / 13.0
Turnovers 12.3 / 12.0 15.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NCSU
20-14-0 (58.8%)
Margin: 6.9 ATS +/-: -1.1
BOIS Advantage
20-12-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NCSU
16-17-1 (48.5%)
Margin: 6.9 ATS +/-: -1.1
BOIS Advantage
17-13-0 (56.7%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
NCSU
21-13-0
O: 61.8% / U: 38.2% Total +/-: +6.0
BOIS
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3% Total +/-: +3.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOIS
NCSU
BOIS
NCSU
ML
50% 16-16
59% 20-14
61% 19-12
55% 18-15
ATS
50% 16-16
71% 24-10
61% 19-12
55% 18-15
TTL
56% 18-14
71% 24-10
100% 31-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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