GEORGE MASON
PATRIOTSGMU
23-10 | Road
74
FLORIDA ATLANTIC
OWLSFAU
18-15 | Home
65
AI Model Win Probability
PATRIOTS
100%
OWLS
0%
PATRIOTS
--
OWLS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
139.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-23.0
FLORIDA ATLANTIC
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +23.0 points (Florida Atlantic)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around FAU -23.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FAU)
GMU By 1-7 points
0.8%
GMU By 8-14 points
0.1%
FAU By 1-7 points
4.8%
FAU By 8-14 points
13.7%
AI Model Projected Score
George Mason
58
GEORGE MASON
Florida Atlantic
81
FLORIDA ATLANTIC
Simulated Score
George Mason
75
GEORGE MASON
Florida Atlantic
71
FLORIDA ATLANTIC
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Owls
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Patriots
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Owls (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -23.0
D
Sim
Patriots (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 25, 2025
GMU @ FAU
74 - 65
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+72.9% more
Florida Atlantic: 6.5
vs
George Mason: 3.8
Free Throw % (L5)
+5.6%
Florida Atlantic: 77.9%
vs
George Mason: 72.3%
Steals (L5)
+26.9% more
George Mason: 8.0
vs
Florida Atlantic: 5.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+8.7%
George Mason: 43.8%
vs
Florida Atlantic: 35.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
GMU Score
58.0
74
FAU Score
81.0
65
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.2 / 43.8
26.0 / 53.0
Assists
13.8 / 14.8
13.0 / 11.0
Blocks
6.5 / 3.8
3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
47.2 / 48.5
44.0 / 49.0
Free Throw %
77.9 / 72.3
75.0 / 71.0
Rebounding
39.0 / 36.5
31.0 / 33.0
Steals
5.8 / 8.0
4.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
11.7 / 11.3
10.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GMU
Advantage
23-10-0
(69.7%)
Margin: 5.5
ATS +/-: -1.2
FAU
18-15-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 4.3
ATS +/-: +0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GMU
16-16-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 5.5
ATS +/-: -1.2
FAU
Advantage
17-14-0
(54.8%)
Margin: 4.3
ATS +/-: +0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
GMU
15-17-0
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1%
Total +/-: -1.7
FAU
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FAU
GMU
FAU
GMU
ML
64%
21-12
55%
18-15
66%
21-11
73%
24-9
ATS
70%
23-10
55%
18-15
66%
21-11
73%
24-9
TTL
58%
19-14
58%
19-14
100%
32-0
100%
33-0
