SAINT FRANCIS
RED FLASHSFPA
4-4 | Road
64
TROY
TROJANSTROY
22-12 | Home
74
AI Model Win Probability
RED FLASH
100%
TROJANS
0%
RED FLASH
--
TROJANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
134.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
TROY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Troy)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TROY -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TROY)
SFPA By 1-7 points
8.0%
SFPA By 8-14 points
2.2%
TROY By 1-7 points
20.1%
TROY By 8-14 points
27.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Saint Francis
61
SAINT FRANCIS
Troy
73
TROY
Simulated Score
Saint Francis
63
SAINT FRANCIS
Troy
75
TROY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Trojans
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Trojans
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Trojans (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim
Trojans (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 134.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 26, 2025
SFPA @ TROY
64 - 74
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+51.1% more
Troy: 3.4
vs
Saint Francis: 2.3
Assists (L5)
+44.8% more
Troy: 15.2
vs
Saint Francis: 10.5
Rebounding (L5)
+34.7% more
Troy: 42.9
vs
Saint Francis: 31.9
Free Throw % (L5)
+4.4%
Troy: 76.4%
vs
Saint Francis: 71.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SFPA Score
61.0
64
TROY Score
73.0
74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
28.7 / 27.6
22.0 / 36.0
Assists
15.2 / 10.5
11.0 / 8.0
Blocks
3.4 / 2.3
2.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
42.3 / 38.2
46.0 / 40.0
Free Throw %
76.4 / 71.9
63.0 / 75.0
Rebounding
42.9 / 31.9
38.0 / 32.0
Steals
8.2 / 8.0
11.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
13.9 / 15.5
19.0 / 22.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SFPA
7-24-0
(22.6%)
Margin: -9.5
ATS +/-: -1.7
TROY
Advantage
22-12-0
(64.7%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SFPA
13-15-1
(46.4%)
Margin: -9.5
ATS +/-: -1.7
TROY
Advantage
17-15-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
SFPA
15-14-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3%
Total +/-: +5.8
TROY
14-16-2
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3%
Total +/-: +2.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TROY
SFPA
TROY
SFPA
ML
59%
20-14
68%
21-10
61%
20-13
67%
20-10
ATS
65%
22-12
68%
21-10
61%
20-13
67%
20-10
TTL
56%
19-15
58%
18-13
100%
33-0
100%
30-0
