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USC

TROJANSUSC

18-14  |  Road

88
FINAL
Wed, Nov 26 • 2:30 PM ET
Lahaina Civic Center
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA STATE

SUN DEVILSASU

17-16  |  Home

75
AI Model Win Probability
TROJANS
100%
📊
SUN DEVILS
0%
TROJANS --
SUN DEVILS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
84.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
ARIZONA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Arizona State)
TrojansUSC (-3.5) 0 Sun DevilsASU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Trojans Cover

8.1%

Sun Devils Cover

91.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ASU -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ASU)

USC By 1-7 points

5.8%

USC By 8-14 points

1.4%

ASU By 1-7 points

16.9%

ASU By 8-14 points

26.2%

AI Model Projected Score
35
USC
49
ARIZONA STATE
Simulated Score
69
USC
75
ARIZONA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Sun Devils Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Sun Devils Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Sun Devils (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim Sun Devils (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 84.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 26, 2025 USC @ ASU 88 - 75
Mar 7, 2024 ASU @ USC 73 - 81
Jan 20, 2024 USC @ ASU 67 - 82
Mar 9, 2023 ASU @ USC 77 - 72
Mar 4, 2023 ASU @ USC 65 - 68
Key Model Drivers
Field Goal % (L5) +1.9%
Arizona State: 49.5% vs USC: 47.6%
Blocks (L5) +54.2% more
USC: 6.6 vs Arizona State: 3.0
Assists (L5) +29.6% more
USC: 14.7 vs Arizona State: 10.4
Turnovers (L5) +23.4% more
USC: 13.1 vs Arizona State: 10.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USC Score 35.0 88
ASU Score 49.0 75
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 41.5 / 42.3 32.0 / 39.0
Assists 10.4 / 14.7 10.0 / 16.0
Blocks 3.0 / 6.6 2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 49.5 / 47.6 42.0 / 60.0
Free Throw % 73.9 / 73.1 85.0 / 61.0
Rebounding 29.9 / 36.6 21.0 / 32.0
Steals 6.0 / 6.4 5.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 10.0 / 13.1 11.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USC Advantage
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: -3.5
ASU
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USC
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: -3.5
ASU Advantage
20-12-1 (62.5%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
USC
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2% Total +/-: +2.5
ASU
16-17-0
O: 48.5% / U: 51.5% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ASU
USC
ASU
USC
ML
52% 17-16
52% 16-15
68% 21-10
58% 18-13
ATS
52% 17-16
68% 21-10
68% 21-10
58% 18-13
TTL
64% 21-12
68% 21-10
100% 31-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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